Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe


Match Preview
The model favours Mārupe to win with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Rēzekne FA. This prediction is primarily based on the contrasting league positions and overall form of both teams. Mārupe currently sits in 6th place with 19 points, showcasing a solid record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +7, alongside scoring 22 goals while conceding 15, reflects a more balanced and effective performance this season. In contrast, Rēzekne FA finds itself at the bottom of the standings in 13th place, having accumulated just 5 points from 12 matches. Their record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 9 losses, coupled with a troubling goal difference of -26, highlights significant struggles both offensively and defensively. With only 10 goals scored and 36 conceded, Rēzekne FA has faced challenges in finding the net and maintaining a solid defensive line. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 70% for Mārupe, suggesting they have a strong chance of securing three points in this fixture. However, one caveat is that if Rēzekne FA can generate an unexpected surge in performance or take advantage of defensive lapses from Mārupe, the outcome could be different. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)









The head-to-head record between Rēzekne FA and Mārupe stands at 1 win for Rēzekne FA, 3 draws, and 1 win for Mārupe. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow wins. Notably, the most recent match saw Mārupe achieve a commanding 4-0 victory, while Rēzekne FA's only win came with a close 2-1 scoreline. The consistent low-scoring nature of their encounters, illustrated by multiple 1-1 draws, further emphasizes the tightness of their meetings, suggesting neither side has dominated in recent history.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD | |
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD | |
| 3 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 | LWWWD | |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 | WLLDW | |
| 5 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 23 | WLWDW | |
| 6 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LWLLL | |
| 12 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 9 | LDLWW | |
| 13 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 7 | WLLLD | |
| 14 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 5 | LDLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 Season
Rēzekne FA have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1 and lost to Rēzekne FA 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 16L from the last 24 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.













Mārupe have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Riga Mariners 2-0 and beat JFC Jelgava 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 14L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 players
Rēzekne FA
No reported absences
Mārupe
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.



