Today's top picks and bookie offers, free on TelegramToday's top picks, free on TelegramJoin

Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds

Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe

1. LigaRegular Season - 14
Rēzekne FA
#14 · 1. Liga
LLLLD
1 - 2
Mārupe
#7 · 1. Liga
LLWLL

Match Preview

The model favours Mārupe to win with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Rēzekne FA. This prediction is primarily based on the contrasting league positions and overall form of both teams. Mārupe currently sits in 6th place with 19 points, showcasing a solid record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +7, alongside scoring 22 goals while conceding 15, reflects a more balanced and effective performance this season. In contrast, Rēzekne FA finds itself at the bottom of the standings in 13th place, having accumulated just 5 points from 12 matches. Their record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 9 losses, coupled with a troubling goal difference of -26, highlights significant struggles both offensively and defensively. With only 10 goals scored and 36 conceded, Rēzekne FA has faced challenges in finding the net and maintaining a solid defensive line. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 70% for Mārupe, suggesting they have a strong chance of securing three points in this fixture. However, one caveat is that if Rēzekne FA can generate an unexpected surge in performance or take advantage of defensive lapses from Mārupe, the outcome could be different. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)
1 Rēzekne FA3 Draw1 Mārupe
22 Mar
Mārupe
4-0
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
Oct 25
Rēzekne FA
2-1
Mārupe
1. Liga
May 25
Mārupe
1-1
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
Oct 24
Mārupe
1-1
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
Jun 24
Rēzekne FA
1-1
Mārupe
1. Liga

The head-to-head record between Rēzekne FA and Mārupe stands at 1 win for Rēzekne FA, 3 draws, and 1 win for Mārupe. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow wins. Notably, the most recent match saw Mārupe achieve a commanding 4-0 victory, while Rēzekne FA's only win came with a close 2-1 scoreline. The consistent low-scoring nature of their encounters, illustrated by multiple 1-1 draws, further emphasizes the tightness of their meetings, suggesting neither side has dominated in recent history.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
16132169145541
WDWWW
2
Valmiera / BSS
16132144143041
WWWWW
3
Leevon / PPK
1611322718936
WWWWL
4
Riga Mariners
16105134151935
WWDLW
5
JDFS Alberts
168443223928
WDDWL
6
Super Nova 2
166552323023
WLDLD
7
Mārupe
167182625122
LLWLW
12
JFK Ventspils
162591828-1011
LLDLW
13
Smiltene
1624101943-2410
LWLWL
14
Rēzekne FA
1612131346-335
LLLLD

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Rēzekne FAHome
1W2D5L
8 playedGF 10 · GA 220.63 pts/game
MārupeAway
4W1D3L
8 playedGF 12 · GA 101.63 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Rēzekne FAMārupe
1.22Goals p.g.1.41
2.63Goals conceded p.g.1.55
4%Clean sheets21%
19%Win rate38%
3.85Avg goals in match2.97
Rēzekne FA
Recent Form

Rēzekne FA have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Rēzekne FA 1-2 and drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 19L from the last 27 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Rēzekne FAAll competitions
08 Aug
Skanste
5-1
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
01 Aug
Leevon / PPK
2-1
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
25 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-2
Mārupe
1. Liga
19 Jul
Smiltene
1-0
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
04 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-1
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
27 Jun
Rēzekne FA
2-4
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
5
Win
19%
3
Draw
11%
19
Lost
70%
Mārupe
Recent Form

Mārupe have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Skanste 4-2 and beat Rēzekne FA 1-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 16L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: MārupeAll competitions
08 Aug
Mārupe
0-1
Leevon / PPK
1. Liga
01 Aug
Skanste
4-2
Mārupe
1. Liga
25 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-2
Mārupe
1. Liga
18 Jul
Mārupe
0-4
Metta / LU
1. Liga
12 Jul
Mārupe
0-1
Grobiņa
Cup
04 Jul
Mārupe
2-1
Smiltene
1. Liga
11
Win
38%
2
Draw
7%
16
Lost
55%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Rēzekne FA

No reported absences

Mārupe

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.