Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Prediction, Tips & Odds

Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe

1. LigaRegular Season - 14
Rēzekne FA
#14 · 1. Liga
LDLLL
VS
Mārupe
#6 · 1. Liga
LLWLW

Match Preview

The model favours Mārupe to win with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Rēzekne FA. This prediction is primarily based on the contrasting league positions and overall form of both teams. Mārupe currently sits in 6th place with 19 points, showcasing a solid record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +7, alongside scoring 22 goals while conceding 15, reflects a more balanced and effective performance this season. In contrast, Rēzekne FA finds itself at the bottom of the standings in 13th place, having accumulated just 5 points from 12 matches. Their record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 9 losses, coupled with a troubling goal difference of -26, highlights significant struggles both offensively and defensively. With only 10 goals scored and 36 conceded, Rēzekne FA has faced challenges in finding the net and maintaining a solid defensive line. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 70% for Mārupe, suggesting they have a strong chance of securing three points in this fixture. However, one caveat is that if Rēzekne FA can generate an unexpected surge in performance or take advantage of defensive lapses from Mārupe, the outcome could be different. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.

Head to Head

Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)
1 Rēzekne FA3 Draw1 Mārupe
22 Mar
Mārupe
4-0
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
Oct 25
Rēzekne FA
2-1
Mārupe
1. Liga
May 25
Mārupe
1-1
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
Oct 24
Mārupe
1-1
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
Jun 24
Rēzekne FA
1-1
Mārupe
1. Liga

The head-to-head record between Rēzekne FA and Mārupe stands at 1 win for Rēzekne FA, 3 draws, and 1 win for Mārupe. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow wins. Notably, the most recent match saw Mārupe achieve a commanding 4-0 victory, while Rēzekne FA's only win came with a close 2-1 scoreline. The consistent low-scoring nature of their encounters, illustrated by multiple 1-1 draws, further emphasizes the tightness of their meetings, suggesting neither side has dominated in recent history.

1. Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Metta / LU
13111146113534
WWWWD
2
Valmiera / BSS
13102135122332
WWWWD
3
Riga Mariners
1384126121428
LWWWD
4
Leevon / PPK
138322216627
WLLDW
5
JDFS Alberts
137242821723
WLWDW
6
Mārupe
136162219319
LWLLL
12
Rīgas FS II
132381528-139
LDLWW
13
Smiltene
131481333-207
WLLLD
14
Rēzekne FA
1312101037-275
LDLLW

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
Rēzekne FAHome
1W2D4L
7 playedGF 9 · GA 200.71 pts/game
MārupeAway
3W1D2L
6 playedGF 8 · GA 51.67 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Rēzekne FAMārupe
1.25Goals p.g.1.42
2.58Goals conceded p.g.1.5
4%Clean sheets23%
21%Win rate38%
3.83Avg goals in match2.92
Rēzekne FA
Recent Form

Rēzekne FA have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1 and lost to Rēzekne FA 2-4.

Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 16L from the last 24 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Rēzekne FAAll competitions
19 Jul
Smiltene
1-0
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
04 Jul
Rēzekne FA
1-1
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
27 Jun
Rēzekne FA
2-4
JDFS Alberts
1. Liga
14 Jun
Rīgas FS II
3-0
Rēzekne FA
1. Liga
30 May
Ķekava / Auda
2-1
Rēzekne FA
Cup
23 May
Rēzekne FA
2-1
Riga FC II
1. Liga
5
Win
21%
3
Draw
13%
16
Lost
67%
Mārupe
Recent Form

Mārupe have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Riga Mariners 2-0 and beat JFC Jelgava 1-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 14L from the last 26 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: MārupeAll competitions
18 Jul
Mārupe
0-4
Metta / LU
1. Liga
12 Jul
Mārupe
0-1
Grobiņa
Cup
04 Jul
Mārupe
2-1
Smiltene
1. Liga
27 Jun
Riga Mariners
2-0
Mārupe
1. Liga
19 Jun
Mārupe
4-2
Aliance
Cup
14 Jun
Mārupe
1-2
JFK Ventspils
1. Liga
10
Win
38%
2
Draw
8%
14
Lost
54%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Rēzekne FA

No reported absences

Mārupe

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.