JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene Prediction, Tips & Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene
Match Preview
The model favours JFK Ventspils to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Smiltene. Currently sitting in 10th place, JFK Ventspils has struggled this season with only two wins from 13 matches. However, they have shown some resilience with a recent win and a draw, indicating a potential for improvement. Their goal difference of -7 reflects defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 16 goals, which is a positive sign in their attacking play. On the other hand, Smiltene is in a more precarious position, sitting at 13th in the standings with just one win from the same number of games. Their form has been particularly concerning, with four consecutive losses following a single victory. With a goal difference of -20, their defensive issues are pronounced, having conceded 33 goals, which highlights their struggles to maintain solidity at the back. The model gives JFK Ventspils a win probability of approximately 55%, projecting a 2-1 scoreline. However, a caveat exists; if Smiltene can find a way to shore up their defence and exploit any lapses from their opponents, they may pose a greater threat than their current form suggests. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
JFK Ventspils have been the stronger side, winning 21% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 JFK Ventspils win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. JFK Ventspils are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 3.95 | 4.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.49 | 4.15 | 5.00 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.51 | 2.29 | |
| 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 3.75 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.15 | 5.17 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.51 | 2.34 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.05 | 4.45 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.45 | 2.47 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (JFK Ventspils leads 3-1)The head-to-head record between JFK Ventspils and Smiltene shows JFK Ventspils winning 3 matches, Smiltene winning 1, and 3 matches ending in draws over their last 7 encounters. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tightly contested matches, including three draws and only one match decided by more than a single goal. Notably, Smiltene's last victory came in April 2023, suggesting they have struggled to secure wins against JFK Ventspils since then. Overall, the results reflect a balance, but with JFK Ventspils having a slight edge in recent history.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 14 | 57 | 44 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 15 | 33 | 44 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 39 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 38 | WWWDL |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 31 | WWDDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 25 | LWLLW |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | -26 | 10 | LLWLW |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 48 | -35 | 5 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJFK Ventspils have won 2 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Super Nova 2 0-2 and lost to Smiltene 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 8D 14L from the last 28 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Smiltene have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Smiltene 4-2 and beat JFK Ventspils 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 7D 18L from the last 29 games (14% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Smiltene
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
JFK Ventspils average 1.3 goals per match at home; Smiltene 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
JFK Ventspils have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 21% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. JFK Ventspils player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
