Kalju Nomme vs Paide Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Paide
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win against Paide, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kalju Nomme currently sits in second place in the Meistriliiga standings with 28 points from 14 matches, boasting an impressive goal difference of 16. Their season has been characterized by strong offensive play, scoring 26 goals while conceding only 10, reflecting a solid defensive unit as well. On the other hand, Paide is positioned fourth with 21 points from the same number of matches. Their form has been less consistent, with just one win in their last five outings. Paide has scored 22 goals but has also conceded 19, indicating vulnerabilities in their defense that Kalju Nomme could exploit. The model gives Kalju Nomme a win probability of approximately 60%, suggesting they are the clear favourites in this matchup. However, a potential caveat is Kalju Nomme's recent inconsistency, as they have lost two of their last five matches, which could impact their performance. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by the SureTipsPro Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Kalju Nomme clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kalju Nomme vs Paide| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 1.68 | 3.72 | 4.05 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.02 | |
| 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.75 | 3.92 | 4.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 3.44 | 4.11 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.70 | 3.72 | 4.12 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 1.73 | 3.65 | 4.00 | 1.60 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.16 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 1.67 | 1.95 | — | — |
Superbet | 1.74 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 1.57 | 1.78 | 1.53 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 44 | 12 | 32 | 42 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 15 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 30 | WLWWW |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 29 | LDLWW |
| 4 | Paide | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 25 | WDDLL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 20 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 | DWDWL |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 16 | LWLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 39 | -28 | 10 | DLLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKalju Nomme have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tammeka 1-2 and drew with Paide 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 7L from the last 24 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Paide have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Kalju Nomme 1-1 and lost to Trans Narva 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 8L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKalju Nomme
No reported absences
Paide
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Pukk has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Pukk to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kalju Nomme average 1.9 goals per match at home; Paide 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 50% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.