Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol
Match Preview
The model favours Kashiwa Reysol to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Kashima. Kashiwa Reysol currently leads the J1 League, positioned first with 21 points from 9 matches. Their season has been strong, with 7 wins and only 2 losses, showcasing a solid goal difference of 7. They have scored 21 goals while conceding 14, indicating a balanced attacking and defensive strategy that has served them well. On the other hand, Kashima sits in 6th place with 16 points, having won 5, drawn 1, and lost 3 of their matches. Their recent form shows some promise with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. However, their goal difference of 3 suggests that while they are competitive, they have faced challenges in both scoring and defending compared to the league leaders. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Kashiwa Reysol, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to consider is the over 2.5 goals option, given both teams' attacking capabilities. A potential caveat for Kashiwa Reysol could be complacency, as they face a determined Kashima side looking to climb the standings. The full method for this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Kashima have been the stronger side, winning 70% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kashima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.93 | 1.75 | 2.01 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.29 | 3.44 | 3.10 | 1.77 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 2.14 | 3.20 | 2.84 | 1.78 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.27 | 3.68 | 2.99 | 1.79 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.78 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 1.72 | 1.97 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kashima leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol, Kashima has won 6 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw and Kashiwa Reysol winning only once. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for Kashima, as they have claimed several victories by a margin of at least two goals, including a 3-2 win. While there have been a couple of draws, the overall record shows that Kashiwa Reysol's solitary win came a while ago, suggesting a significant challenge in overcoming Kashima's dominance in these encounters.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 26 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 22 | LWLWW |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 6 | Kashima | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 18 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 | LLWLL |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 | LDDLD |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonKashima have won 20 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kashima 2-0 and beat Kashima 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 28W 7D 5L from the last 40 games (70% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kashiwa Reysol have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Kashiwa Reysol 0-0 and beat Machida Zelvia 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 3D 17L from the last 41 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKashima
No reported absences
Kashiwa Reysol
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Kashima have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Kashiwa Reysol 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kashima have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 70% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kashima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
