Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse
Match Preview
The model favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win against Shimizu S-pulse, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned 5th in the J1 League, Sanfrecce has demonstrated strong form this season with five wins, two draws, and just one loss across their eight matches. They have scored 20 goals while conceding only 6, showcasing a solid goal difference of +14. This offensive capability, combined with a tight defense, places them in a strong position as they aim to secure their place in the upper tier of the league. In contrast, Shimizu S-pulse finds themselves in 12th place, having garnered 10 points from their eight matches with three wins, one draw, and four losses. Their goal statistics reflect a struggle, with only 6 goals scored against 8 conceded, resulting in a negative goal difference of -2. While they have shown resilience with a similar recent form of four wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has not matched that of Sanfrecce. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat for this prediction lies in the unpredictability of football; if Shimizu can leverage their recent form and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Sanfrecce, they could pose a challenge. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model assesses fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.39 | 4.75 | 6.90 | 1.58 | 2.29 | 1.76 | 1.93 | |
| 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.39 | 4.99 | 7.28 | 1.58 | 2.39 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.37 | 6.38 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.43 | 4.88 | 7.08 | 1.61 | 2.34 | 1.76 | 1.96 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.55 | 6.80 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shimizu S-pulse leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse, both teams have won 4 matches each, with 2 draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, as there have been several tight encounters, including four matches ending in draws and a notable number of low-scoring games. The highest margin of victory was a 3-0 win for Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Emperor Cup, while Shimizu S-pulse's largest win was 3-1. The most recent match ended in a 1-1 draw, reflecting the balanced nature of their head-to-head history.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 26 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 22 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 6 |  Kashima | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 14 | LDWWW |
| 18 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 | LLWLL |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 | LDDLD |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonSanfrecce Hiroshima have won 15 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 and beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 26W 7D 11L from the last 44 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shimizu S-pulse have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 and beat Mito Hollyhock 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 11D 15L from the last 41 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanfrecce Hiroshima
No reported absences
Shimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have averaged 7.9 corners per match at home; Shimizu S-pulse 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have generated 2.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sanfrecce Hiroshima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
