Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
Match Preview
The model favours Avispa Fukuoka to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 1-0 against Tokyo Verdy. Avispa Fukuoka currently occupies 16th place in the J1 League, having secured 7 points from 9 matches. Their season has been marked by inconsistent form, with two wins and a draw, but they have managed to score 11 goals, which indicates a slightly more effective attack compared to their opponent. On the other hand, Tokyo Verdy sits at the bottom of the league in 19th place, with just 4 points from 8 matches. They have failed to win a match this season, recording 4 draws and 4 losses. Their goal difference of -8 highlights significant struggles defensively, as they have only managed to score 4 goals while conceding 12. This lack of offensive output is a major concern for their chances in this fixture. The model gives Avispa Fukuoka a higher win probability, projecting them to secure the three points in this matchup. However, a caveat exists: if Tokyo Verdy can improve their attacking play or if Fukuoka's defence falters, the outcome could be different. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Tokyo Verdy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. Avispa Fukuoka average 1.3 goals per game.
Tokyo Verdy manage games at home, conceding just 1.70 goals per match. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.32 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.3% probability.
Avispa Fukuoka have been the stronger side, winning 24% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka win as the most likely scoreline at 18.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Avispa Fukuoka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.24 | 3.02 | 2.30 | 2.59 | 1.39 | 2.16 | 1.60 | |
| 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.20 | 1.65 | |
| 3.35 | 2.94 | 2.43 | 2.78 | 1.45 | — | — | |
| 2.98 | 2.74 | 2.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 2.80 | 2.25 | — | — | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.30 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 3.32 | 3.10 | 2.36 | 2.69 | 1.44 | 2.16 | 1.62 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.35 | 2.65 | 1.47 | 2.18 | 1.62 |
BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.53 | 1.44 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tokyo Verdy leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka, Tokyo Verdy has won 3 times, there have been 5 draws, and Avispa Fukuoka has won 2 matches. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with a notable number of draws and several low-scoring encounters; four of the last ten matches ended in 0-0. The most recent win for Avispa Fukuoka came in November 2019, suggesting a lack of recent success against Tokyo Verdy. Overall, while both teams have had their victories, the head-to-head record remains closely contested.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 26 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 22 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 6 |  Kashima | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 | LLWLL |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 | LDDLD |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonTokyo Verdy have won 6 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 12. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tokyo Verdy 0-4 and lost to Tokyo Verdy 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 20L from the last 40 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Avispa Fukuoka have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Machida Zelvia 3-0 and lost to Sagan Tosu 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 13D 18L from the last 41 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTokyo Verdy
No reported absences
Avispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tokyo Verdy have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Avispa Fukuoka 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Avispa Fukuoka have generated 0.83 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 24% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Avispa Fukuoka player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
