Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund
Match Preview
The model favours Aalesund to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Aalesund sits just above Kristiansund in the standings, currently in 14th place with 21 points from 21 matches. Their season has been marked by a mixed bag of results, with four wins, nine draws, and eight losses. Notably, they have scored 33 goals but conceded 46, leading to a goal difference of -13. Their recent form shows a slight upward trend, with three wins in their last five matches. On the other hand, Kristiansund BK finds themselves in a precarious 15th position, having accumulated 19 points from 21 games. Their record includes five wins, four draws, and twelve losses, with a goal difference of -19. They have struggled defensively, conceding 40 goals, which is among the highest in the league. Recent form indicates some inconsistency, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. According to the model, Aalesund has a win probability of approximately 45%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat exists: Kristiansund could exploit their home advantage, which may lead to an unexpected result. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Aalesund have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Aalesund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kristiansund BK vs Aalesund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.41 | 3.68 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.43 | 2.58 | |
| 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 2.46 | 3.85 | 2.69 | 1.56 | 2.51 | — | — | |
| 2.24 | 3.32 | 2.48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.35 | 3.70 | 2.55 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.48 | 3.78 | 2.64 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.43 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.70 | 2.65 | 1.55 | 2.42 | 1.47 | 2.52 |
BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.55 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aalesund leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Kristiansund BK and Aalesund, Aalesund has the upper hand with 5 wins, while Kristiansund BK has won 3 times and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and more decisive victories, with Aalesund achieving significant wins such as 4-0 and 3-0, while Kristiansund BK's largest win was 4-0 as well. The matches have seen a blend of low-scoring draws and narrow victories, suggesting competitive encounters. Aalesund's last win over Kristiansund BK was more recent, indicating a favorable trend for them in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 | DWLLD |
| 4 |  Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 37 | DLWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 34 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 |  Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 | LLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKristiansund BK have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Kristiansund BK 1-3 and beat Kristiansund BK 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 18L from the last 37 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Aalesund have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Molde 1-2 and beat Førde 3-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 14L from the last 36 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKristiansund BK
No reported absences
Aalesund
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Mischa Kellerhals has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Mischa Kellerhals to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kristiansund BK have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Aalesund 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aalesund have generated 1.58 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aalesund player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
