Sandefjord vs Lillestrom Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom
Match Preview
The model favours Lillestrom to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lillestrom currently sits in 6th place with 32 points, showing a competitive edge this season. With 10 wins out of 21 matches, their attacking prowess is evident, as they have scored 28 goals, although they have also conceded 29, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form has been solid, with three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are building momentum as the season progresses. In contrast, Sandefjord is positioned 11th in the standings with 23 points from 21 matches. They have won six times this season but have struggled defensively, conceding 27 goals. Their recent form, including two wins and two draws in the last five matches, shows some improvement, yet they still face challenges against stronger opponents. With a goal difference of -6, they will need to tighten their defense to secure points against Lillestrom. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Lillestrom, reflecting their stronger position in the league. However, Sandefjord's recent resilience could pose a threat, especially if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Lillestrom. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Sandefjord have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sandefjord are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.65 | 3.52 | 2.42 | 1.57 | 2.31 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 2.63 | 3.62 | 2.56 | 1.60 | 2.37 | — | — | |
| 2.39 | 3.26 | 2.35 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.72 | 3.61 | 2.48 | 1.60 | 2.36 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.47 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.47 | 2.52 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lillestrom leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Sandefjord and Lillestrom, Lillestrom has won 6 times, Sandefjord has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a somewhat competitive rivalry, although Lillestrom has secured more victories. Notably, Lillestrom has recorded several convincing wins, including a 4-2 and a 3-0, suggesting they can dominate when in form. Sandefjord's wins have been tighter, with two matches ending 1-0. The last time Sandefjord defeated Lillestrom in the league was in November 2024, indicating a recent trend of Lillestrom's upper hand.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 | DWLLD |
| 4 |  Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 37 | DLWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 34 | DWWWL |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 | DWLDD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 |  Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 | LLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSandefjord have won 10 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sandefjord 3-0 and drew with Sandefjord 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 10L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lillestrom have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bærum 1-5 and lost to Viking 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 17L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSandefjord
No reported absences
Lillestrom
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tore Hansen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Tore Hansen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sandefjord have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Lillestrom 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sandefjord have generated 1.07 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sandefjord player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
