Viking vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Tips & Odds
Viking vs Fredrikstad
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win against Fredrikstad with a projected scoreline of 3-1. Viking currently sits at the top of the league, holding a commanding position with 50 points from 21 matches, having secured 16 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their impressive goal difference of +34, with 54 goals scored and only 20 conceded, highlights their attacking prowess and defensive solidity, making them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Fredrikstad is positioned 8th in the league with 28 points, having won 8, drawn 4, and lost 9 of their matches. Their goal statistics show a weaker attack, with only 25 goals scored, while they have conceded 32, resulting in a negative goal difference. This indicates that they have struggled to maintain consistency throughout the season, which may impact their performance against the league leaders. The model output suggests a high win probability for Viking, reflecting their dominance in the league, while Fredrikstad’s mixed form of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five may not be enough to challenge the top team. However, an honest caveat is that if Fredrikstad can exploit any vulnerabilities in Viking's defence, they could potentially cause an upset. For further details on our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which outlines our in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Viking win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Viking clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Viking vs Fredrikstad| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.25 | 6.10 | 9.00 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.27 | 6.53 | 8.95 | 1.36 | 3.11 | — | — | |
| 1.24 | 5.13 | 7.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.80 | 8.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.27 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.27 | 6.38 | 9.40 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
Betano | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 9.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Viking leads 5-1)In the last eight encounters between Viking and Fredrikstad, Viking has secured five wins, with two matches ending in draws and Fredrikstad winning once. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Viking to dominate, as they have won four of their five victories by at least a two-goal margin, suggesting a pattern of relatively comfortable wins. Fredrikstad's sole victory came in a close 3-2 match in 2024, highlighting that while they have managed to score against Viking, their overall success in this fixture has been limited. The last time Fredrikstad triumphed was in September 2024, indicating a struggle to claim points in recent meetings.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 | DWLLD |
| 4 |  Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 37 | DLWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 34 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 29 | DDDLW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 |  Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 | LLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonViking have won 16 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bayern München 3-3 and beat Lillestrom 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 29W 7D 5L from the last 41 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fredrikstad have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Valerenga 1-1 and beat Stjørdals-Blink 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 13L from the last 37 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersViking6
Fredrikstad4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Marius Hansen Grotta has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Viking have averaged 7.6 corners per match at home; Fredrikstad 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 71% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
