Molde vs Start Prediction, Tips & Odds
Molde vs Start
Match Preview
The model favours Molde to win against Start, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Molde currently sits in 4th place in the Eliteserien standings, having accumulated 36 points from 21 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid offensive output, scoring 44 goals while conceding 32, resulting in a positive goal difference of 12. Recent form is also strong, with four wins in their last five matches, indicating they are in good shape as they approach this fixture. In contrast, Start finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 16th position, with only 16 points from 21 games. Their struggles are evident, having won just four matches this season and suffering 13 defeats. The team's defensive issues are highlighted by a goal difference of -22, having conceded 44 goals while only scoring 22. Although they have shown some fight with three wins in their last five matches, their overall performance throughout the season has been concerning. The model assigns a win probability of around 70% for Molde, reflecting their superior form and league standing. However, a potential caveat is that if Start can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Molde, they may find opportunities to score. The full method behind this prediction, which involves expected goals and actual results analysis, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this in-house model to provide insights into upcoming matches.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.6% probability.
Molde have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Molde win as the most likely scoreline at 11.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Molde clean sheets, in line with their 25% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Molde are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Molde vs Start| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.31 | 5.50 | 7.70 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 1.33 | 3.25 | — | — | |
| 1.32 | 5.73 | 7.59 | 1.34 | 3.19 | — | — | |
| 1.29 | 4.94 | 6.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.33 | 5.25 | 7.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.34 | 5.68 | 7.95 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.40 | 1.34 | 3.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.75 | 8.50 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Molde leads 4-0)In the last seven meetings between Molde and Start, Molde has won four times, while there have been three draws and Start has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness and dominance, with Molde achieving decisive wins, including a notable 5-0 victory. The matches have generally been close, as evidenced by the three draws and multiple one-goal margins. However, Start has not won against Molde in this stretch, with their last victory dating back to before this sample. This suggests a challenging historical context for Start in this fixture.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 | DWLLD |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 37 | DLWWW |
| 5 |  Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 34 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 | LLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMolde have won 12 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Molde 3-0 and lost to Molde 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 12L from the last 36 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Start have won 6 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 14. Their recent away fixtures include beat Raufoss 1-5 and lost to Sandefjord 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 19L from the last 37 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersMolde6
Start3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Stian Rovig Sletner has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Molde have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Start 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Molde have generated 1.64 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Molde player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
