Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg
Match Preview
The model favours Rosenborg to win the match against Sarpsborg 08 FF, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fifth place, Rosenborg has demonstrated strong form this season, with ten wins from their 21 matches, contributing to a total of 33 points. They have scored 39 goals while conceding 30, resulting in a goal difference of +9. Their recent form is particularly impressive, with five consecutive wins, indicating a robust attack and solid defensive play. Conversely, Sarpsborg 08 FF occupies ninth place in the standings, having accumulated 25 points from 21 matches, with a record of six wins, seven draws, and eight losses. They have managed to score 24 goals but have conceded 29, leading to a negative goal difference of -5. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, highlighting struggles to secure victories and maintain consistency. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Rosenborg, reflecting their current form and standings. However, one caveat to consider is Sarpsborg's potential for an upset, especially if they can leverage home advantage. For further details on how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sarpsborg 08 FF are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.78 | 2.66 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 2.42 | 3.99 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.60 | — | — | |
| 2.42 | 3.31 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.35 | 3.70 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.36 | 3.88 | 2.73 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.41 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sarpsborg 08 FF leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg, Sarpsborg has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Rosenborg has won just once. This record indicates a strong performance from Sarpsborg, particularly in recent encounters, as they have secured victories in four of the last five matches, often with significant scorelines, including a 5-2 win and a 4-1 win. The lone victory for Rosenborg came in April 2026, suggesting a trend of dominance by Sarpsborg, particularly in home fixtures. The frequency of draws also highlights that while matches can be competitive, Sarpsborg has generally had the upper hand.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 20 | 36 | 53 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 | DWLLD |
| 4 |  Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 37 | DLWWW |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 34 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | DLWWL |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 28 | WLDDD |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 19 | LLLWD |
| 16 |  Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 48 | -24 | 16 | LLWLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSarpsborg 08 FF have won 9 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 and drew with Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 11L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Rosenborg have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kristiansund BK 1-3 and beat Fløya 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 5D 14L from the last 37 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersSarpsborg 08 FF2
Rosenborg6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Espen Eskas has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Espen Eskas to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sarpsborg 08 FF have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Rosenborg 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sarpsborg 08 FF have generated 1.74 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sarpsborg 08 FF player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
