Leevon / PPK vs Riga Mariners Prediction, Tips & Odds
Leevon / PPK vs Riga Mariners
Match Preview
The model favours Riga Mariners to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned third in the league, the Mariners have had an impressive season with eight wins and four draws from their twelve matches, remaining unbeaten. Their goal difference of +15, with 25 goals scored and only 10 conceded, highlights their strong defensive capabilities and efficient attacking play. On the other hand, Leevon / PPK sits in fourth place with a record of seven wins, three draws, and two losses. While they have performed well overall, their recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to secure points against a formidable opponent like Riga Mariners. The model gives Riga Mariners a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, the caveat for this prediction is Leevon / PPK's ability to capitalize on home advantage and turn their form around. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
Riga Mariners have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Riga Mariners are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Leevon / PPK vs Riga Mariners| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.30 | 3.85 | 1.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.74 | 3.78 | 1.72 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 3.46 | 3.70 | 1.76 | 1.41 | 2.60 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 3.10 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 1.53 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.78 | 1.74 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.40 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.75 | 1.87 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Riga Mariners leads 1-0)In the last two matches between Leevon / PPK and Riga Mariners, the record stands at one win for Riga Mariners, one draw, and no victories for Leevon / PPK. The scorelines indicate a competitive nature, with one match ending in a close 3-2 win for Riga Mariners and the other finishing in a 1-1 draw. This suggests that while Riga Mariners has the edge with a recent win, the matches have generally been tight, reflecting a balance between the two sides. Leevon / PPK has yet to secure a win against Riga Mariners in this timeframe.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 11 | 35 | 34 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 12 | 23 | 32 | WWWWD |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 28 | LWWWD |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 27 | WLLDW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 23 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 19 | LWLLL |
| 12 |  Rīgas FS II | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 9 | LDLWW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 7 | WLLLD |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 5 | LDLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLeevon / PPK have won 7 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Riga Mariners 2-1 and lost to Riga 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 6L from the last 26 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Riga Mariners have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Riga Mariners 2-1 and beat JDFS Alberts 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 3L from the last 26 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeevon / PPK
No reported absences
Riga Mariners
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Leevon / PPK average 1.8 goals per match at home; Riga Mariners 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Riga Mariners have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 58% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. Riga Mariners player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
