Lincoln vs Burnley Prediction, Tips & Odds
Lincoln vs Burnley
Match Preview
The model favours Lincoln to win this match against Burnley, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Lincoln currently sits in 15th place in the Championship, having secured three wins from their nine matches. Their season has been a mix of results, but they have shown some recent improvement with two wins in their last five matches, indicating potential for upward momentum. With a goal difference of -4, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, but they have scored enough to suggest they can outscore their opponents. Burnley, on the other hand, is struggling at the bottom of the table in 22nd place, with just one win in their nine games so far. Their form has been disappointing, with only one victory in their last five matches. Despite having a slightly better goal tally than Lincoln, their inability to convert draws into wins has hampered their season. With a goal difference also at -4, they have shown some attacking promise but have consistently failed to secure points. The model gives Lincoln a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that if Burnley can tighten their defense and convert their chances, they could pull off an upset. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains the in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Lincoln have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lincoln are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Lincoln vs Burnley| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.88 | 3.44 | 2.29 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.87 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.85 | 3.57 | 2.39 | 1.89 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.09 | 2.16 | 1.86 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.89 | 3.44 | 2.31 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.37 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.25 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Lincoln leads 1-0)In their only past encounter, Lincoln has won 1 match against Burnley, with no draws or wins for Burnley. The scoreline of 1-0 indicates a narrow victory for Lincoln, suggesting a tightly contested match. Since this fixture occurred in February 2017, Burnley has not managed to secure a win against Lincoln, highlighting a one-sided historical result. This solitary match does not provide a robust trend but shows Lincoln's edge in their head-to-head history.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 | DLLLW |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLincoln have won 1 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Lincoln 0-6 and lost to Lincoln 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 10L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Burnley have won 2 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Watford 0-4 and lost to Swansea 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 15D 20L from the last 38 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLincoln
No reported absences
Burnley
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Thomas Parsons has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Thomas Parsons to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Lincoln have averaged 2.6 corners per match at home; Burnley 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lincoln have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lincoln player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
