Sheffield Utd vs Derby Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Match Preview
The model favours Sheffield United to win against Derby, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sheffield United currently sits in 13th place in the Championship, with a record of three wins, three draws, and three losses from nine matches. Their goal difference of plus one indicates a balanced offensive and defensive performance, and they have shown signs of improvement despite a mixed recent form, with two wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Derby is struggling in 23rd place with only one win from nine games, alongside three draws and five losses. Their goal difference of minus seven highlights defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded 15 goals while only managing to score eight. Derby has not won in their last five matches, which includes three losses, signalling ongoing difficulties in turning performances into positive results. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Sheffield United, with a projected score of 2-1. While Sheffield United appears to have the upper hand, a potential caveat is their inconsistency, as they have suffered defeats in three of their last five matches. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Sheffield Utd have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sheffield Utd clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sheffield Utd are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sheffield Utd vs Derby| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.84 | 3.72 | 3.80 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 3.98 | 3.95 | 1.82 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.16 | 3.56 | 1.84 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 3.40 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.86 | 3.72 | 3.79 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.05 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sheffield Utd leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Sheffield Utd and Derby, Sheffield Utd has won 8 times, while Derby has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally strong performance from Sheffield Utd, as they have frequently managed to keep Derby from scoring, with five matches ending in a one-goal margin or less. Derby's last win against Sheffield Utd occurred in November 2025, highlighting a significant gap in their success in this matchup. Overall, the head-to-head record suggests a dominant trend in favor of Sheffield Utd.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 | WLWLL |
| 22 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSheffield Utd have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sheffield Utd 3-0 and lost to Sheffield Utd 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 11L from the last 36 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Derby have won 7 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to QPR 4-1 and lost to West Ham 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 19L from the last 36 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSheffield Utd
No reported absences
Derby
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sheffield Utd have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Derby 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sheffield Utd have generated 1.17 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sheffield Utd player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
