New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
Match Preview
The model favours Chicago Fire to win against New York City FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chicago currently sits in a strong third position in the league, having secured 26 points from 14 matches, with a solid record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. Their goal difference of +11 indicates a balanced attack and defence, with 27 goals scored and only 16 conceded. This season, they have shown a capacity to perform consistently well, particularly in the early stages. In contrast, New York City FC finds themselves in 8th place with 19 points from 15 matches, reflecting a less stable season. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses highlights some inconsistencies, particularly in their recent form, which includes only 2 wins in their last 5 matches. With a goal difference of +4, they have been able to find the net 25 times but have also conceded 21 goals, suggesting vulnerabilities in their defensive line. The model gives Chicago Fire a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. One caveat is that if New York City FC can leverage their home advantage effectively, they could disrupt Chicago's form. For a detailed explanation of how the prediction was reached, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Chicago Fire have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Chicago Fire are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York City FC vs Chicago Fire| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 2.62 | 3.62 | 2.41 | 1.60 | 2.29 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 2.76 | 3.74 | 2.48 | 1.61 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 2.44 | 3.44 | 2.57 | 1.62 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.43 | |
Betano | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.47 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Superbet | 2.67 | 3.65 | 2.47 | 1.63 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.45 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (New York City FC leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between New York City FC and Chicago Fire, New York City FC has won 6 times, drawn 3 times, and Chicago Fire has won once. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for New York City FC, with several narrow wins, including four matches decided by a single goal. Chicago Fire's only victory in this span came in 2021, suggesting a long period of struggle against this opponent. The overall record shows a tendency for matches to be competitive, but New York City FC has maintained a clear edge in recent encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 39 | LWWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 33 | DLWLW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 33 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 33 | DLWLL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 29 | WDLWL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 26 | LLWWW |
| 5 | New York City FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 25 | WWLDW |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Union | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 14 | LWLLW |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 12 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FC have won 4 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat New York City FC 3-0 and lost to New York City FC 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 10L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Chicago Fire have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat CF Montreal 0-2 and beat DC United 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 7L from the last 24 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersNew York City FC8
Chicago Fire4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Ricardo Montero Araya has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Ricardo Montero Araya to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New York City FC have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Chicago Fire 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Chicago Fire have generated 2.09 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Chicago Fire player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
