New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Prediction, Tips & Odds
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
Match Preview
The model favours St. Louis City to win against New York Red Bulls, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. St. Louis City currently sits in 6th place in the standings and has shown strong form recently, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. They have scored 38 goals this season while conceding 33, resulting in a positive goal difference of 5, highlighting their ability to both attack and defend effectively. In contrast, New York Red Bulls find themselves in 12th place with a disappointing record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses. Their recent form has been troubling, with three losses and only two draws in their last five matches. They have struggled to convert chances into goals, managing only 32 goals this season while conceding 48, resulting in a negative goal difference of 16. This indicates significant defensive vulnerabilities that St. Louis City may exploit. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for St. Louis City. However, one key caveat is that New York Red Bulls could benefit from home advantage, which may level the playing field. For a full breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
St. Louis City have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 St. Louis City win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. St. Louis City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.64 | 4.20 | 1.78 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.85 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 3.84 | 4.32 | 1.84 | 1.46 | 2.82 | — | — | |
| 3.11 | 3.66 | 1.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.75 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.80 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 3.70 | 4.25 | 1.83 | 1.45 | 2.82 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
BetVictor | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)The head-to-head record between New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City stands at 1 win for New York, 1 win for St. Louis, and 1 draw from their last three encounters. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with two matches finishing with a margin of just one goal and one match ending in a draw. Notably, both teams have shown they can score, with the highest-scoring match being a 3-1 win for New York. The results suggest a balanced rivalry, with no team dominating the other in recent fixtures.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 36 | LLWLW |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York Red Bulls have won 8 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 10. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 0-2 and beat San Diego 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 20L from the last 39 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
St. Louis City have won 7 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to St. Louis City 3-2 and beat New York Red Bulls 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 12D 9L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
16 playersNew York Red Bulls11
St. Louis City5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Rubiel Vazquez has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
New York Red Bulls have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; St. Louis City 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
St. Louis City have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Louis City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
