Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Osasuna vs Espanyol
Match Preview
The model favours Osasuna to win this match against Espanyol, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Osasuna currently sits in 8th place in La Liga after two matches, having secured one victory and one draw. Their goal-scoring has been efficient, netting 2 goals while conceding just 1, resulting in a positive goal difference of 1. This solid start to the season highlights their defensive resilience and capability to convert opportunities. On the other hand, Espanyol is positioned 11th with one win, no draws, and two losses from three matches. They have scored 5 goals but also conceded 4, indicating a more open style of play. However, their recent form has been concerning, with only one win in their last five matches and three losses. This inconsistency might hinder their ability to compete effectively against a well-organized Osasuna side. The model gives Osasuna a win probability of approximately 55%, while Espanyol's chances stand at around 25%. One key market percentage indicates that Osasuna is favoured to win at 55%. A potential caveat for Osasuna could be complacency, as they must maintain their focus to capitalize on their solid start. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season, providing a comprehensive view of each fixture.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Osasuna manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Espanyol score 1.33 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.5% probability.
Osasuna have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Osasuna clean sheets, in line with their 16% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Osasuna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Osasuna vs Espanyol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.83 | |
| 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.52 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 1.89 | 1.81 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.34 | 3.18 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.26 | 3.05 | 3.04 | 2.19 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.34 | 3.25 | 3.58 | 2.32 | 1.71 | 1.89 | 1.83 | |
| 1.93 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.68 | 1.85 | 1.82 | |
Betano | 2.32 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Osasuna leads 5-1)In the last 10 encounters, Osasuna has won 5 times, Espanyol has won once, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive but slightly favorable record for Osasuna, with several tight matches resulting in low margins. Notably, Osasuna secured four victories by a single goal, while Espanyol's lone win came in a narrow 1-0 match. The recent trend shows that Espanyol has struggled, with their last victory over Osasuna occurring several matches ago, highlighting their difficulties in this fixture.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | DLLLW |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | WLDLL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOsasuna have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Rayo Vallecano 1-1 and lost to Espanyol 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 13L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Espanyol have won 3 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rayo Vallecano 2-1 and beat Osasuna 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 17L from the last 33 games (18% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedOsasuna4-2-3-1Confirmed
Espanyol4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersOsasuna4
Espanyol3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Osasuna have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Espanyol 2.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Osasuna have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Osasuna player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
