Sevilla vs Valencia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sevilla vs Valencia
Match Preview
The model favours Sevilla to win against Valencia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Sevilla currently sits in 5th place in La Liga after three matches, having secured two wins and one loss. Their offensive capabilities are evident, with six goals scored, while their defense has allowed five goals, resulting in a positive goal difference of one. Sevilla's form shows consistency, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating they are in good shape as they enter this fixture. In contrast, Valencia finds themselves in a precarious position, sitting 17th in the standings with only one point from three matches. They have yet to win this season, managing just one draw alongside two losses. Their struggles are reflected in their goal tally, with only one goal scored and four conceded, leading to a goal difference of minus three. This lack of offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities puts Valencia at a significant disadvantage. The model assigns Sevilla a high win probability, reflecting their stronger season start and current form. While Sevilla is favoured to take all three points, a potential caveat could be if Valencia manages to tighten their defense or finds an unexpected spark in attack. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 20% of matches. Valencia average 1.3 goals per game.
Sevilla manage games at home, conceding just 1.43 goals per match. Valencia score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Sevilla have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Sevilla win as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sevilla clean sheets, in line with their 20% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Sevilla are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sevilla vs Valencia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.24 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.00 | 3.34 | 4.30 | 2.29 | 1.64 | 1.95 | 1.76 | |
| 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.00 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 1.98 | 3.35 | 4.42 | 2.35 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 2.96 | 3.29 | 2.36 | 1.59 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.00 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.10 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.03 | 3.40 | 4.37 | 2.38 | 1.68 | 1.95 | 1.78 | |
| 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.90 | 2.30 | 1.58 | 1.98 | 1.75 | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.75 | 2.30 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.32 | 1.61 | 2.02 | 1.77 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Valencia leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Sevilla and Valencia, Sevilla has won 2 times, there have been 5 draws, and Valencia has won 3 times. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced competition, with a notable frequency of draws and low-scoring games. Only two matches featured more than two goals, suggesting a tendency towards tight contests. Valencia's last victory was in March 2026, while Sevilla's last win came in April 2023, indicating that both teams have had periods of success against each other without a clear dominant side.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | WLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSevilla have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Aston Villa 1-3 and lost to Barcelona 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 15L from the last 35 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Valencia have won 8 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Alaves 0-1 and lost to Sevilla 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 16L from the last 34 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersSevilla2
Valencia8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sevilla have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Valencia 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sevilla have generated 1.31 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sevilla player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
