Racing Santander vs Alaves Prediction, Tips & Odds
Racing Santander vs Alaves
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Alaves currently sits in third place in La Liga, having started the season with a strong performance, recording two wins and one draw from their opening three matches. Their goal difference of +4 highlights their defensive solidity, having conceded only one goal so far while scoring five. Racing Santander, on the other hand, is in ninth place with four points from three games, showcasing a mixed form of one win, one draw, and one loss. They have managed to score five goals but have also conceded five, indicating vulnerabilities in their defence that could be exploited by a confident Alaves side. The model gives Alaves a win probability of around 65%, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their current form and positioning. However, a potential caveat is that Racing Santander may find motivation playing at home, which could lead to a more competitive match than expected. For a complete understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team stands behind this data-driven approach.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Racing Santander have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Racing Santander are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Racing Santander vs Alaves| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.86 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.57 | 3.58 | 2.75 | 1.72 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.29 | |
| 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.71 | 1.73 | 2.19 | — | — | |
| 2.47 | 3.24 | 2.53 | 1.71 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.62 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.61 | 3.64 | 2.80 | 1.77 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.32 | |
| 2.43 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 1.80 | 1.97 | 1.60 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 2.57 | 3.50 | 2.67 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Alaves leads 2-0)In the last five encounters between Racing Santander and Alaves, the record stands at 0 wins for Racing Santander, 3 draws, and 2 wins for Alaves. This indicates a competitive rivalry, particularly evident in the three draws, suggesting that matches tend to be closely contested. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight matches, with Alaves achieving a notable 3-0 victory, while the other fixtures resulted in either 1-1 or 0-0 draws. Racing Santander has not won in recent meetings, with their last victory against Alaves occurring before this sample period.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 24 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 13 | LWWDL |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 | LLWLW |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 | WLDLL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 | LWLLL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRacing Santander have won 6 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Racing Santander 2-1 and beat Racing Santander 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 5D 6L from the last 18 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Alaves have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Alaves 0-0 and lost to Racing Santander 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 10L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedRacing Santander4-2-3-1Confirmed
Alaves4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersRacing Santander2
Alaves2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Racing Santander have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Alaves 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Racing Santander have generated 1.63 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Racing Santander player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
