Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Match Preview
The model favours Olympiakos Piraeus to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned 5th in the league, Olympiakos has shown a strong start to the season with three wins, one draw, and only one loss from their first five matches. Their defensive record stands out, having conceded just two goals, which contributes to a goal difference of plus two. This solidity at the back, combined with their ability to secure points, makes them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Panetolikos sits in 6th place with three wins and two losses, scoring eight goals but also conceding seven, resulting in a narrow goal difference of plus one. While they have shown resilience with three wins in their last five matches, their inconsistent form—evidenced by two losses—raises concerns about their ability to consistently challenge stronger teams like Olympiakos. The model gives Olympiakos a 68.4% probability of winning, while Panetolikos has an 11.0% chance of victory. One area of concern for Olympiakos could be potential complacency, as they might underestimate a Panetolikos side that has shown moments of quality. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of matches. Olympiakos Piraeus average 1.2 goals per game.
Panetolikos manage games at home, conceding just 1.43 goals per match. Olympiakos Piraeus score 1.20 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Olympiakos Piraeus have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus win as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Olympiakos Piraeus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 8.70 | 4.55 | 1.35 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 2.15 | 1.61 | |
| 8.00 | 4.40 | 1.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 8.00 | 4.33 | 1.36 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 8.65 | 4.55 | 1.36 | 1.85 | 1.89 | 2.15 | 1.63 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Olympiakos Piraeus leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus, the record stands at 0 wins for Panetolikos, 1 draw, and 9 victories for Olympiakos Piraeus. This demonstrates a significant dominance by Olympiakos, with several matches ending in heavy defeats for Panetolikos, including a 6-1 loss and multiple 2-0 and 3-1 results. The lone draw was a goalless affair, indicating that when Panetolikos has managed to hold Olympiakos, it has typically been in tightly contested matches. Overall, Panetolikos has not won against Olympiakos in this period, reflecting a challenging historical matchup.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 14 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 4 |  PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 5 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 | WDLLW |
| 6 |  OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | LLLWW |
| 12 |  Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 | LLDDL |
| 13 |  Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | LLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPanetolikos have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to PAOK 1-3 and beat Kalamata 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 7D 15L from the last 30 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Levadiakos 0-1 and drew with Volos NFC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 9L from the last 35 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPanetolikos
No reported absences
Olympiakos Piraeus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Panetolikos have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Olympiakos Piraeus 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Olympiakos Piraeus have generated 1.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Olympiakos Piraeus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.