PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen Prediction, Tips & Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Match Preview
The model favours PSV Eindhoven to win against Heerenveen, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. PSV currently sits in third place in the Eredivisie, having accumulated 16 points from their first seven matches. Their offensive prowess is evident, with 24 goals scored, resulting in an impressive goal difference of 14. The team has shown consistent form, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. In contrast, Heerenveen is positioned tenth in the league with just nine points from their seven games. Their season has been more challenging, as evidenced by their two wins, three draws, and two losses. They have managed to score only 11 goals, which highlights their difficulties in finding the back of the net regularly. With a goal difference of just plus two, Heerenveen will need to significantly improve their attacking output to compete effectively. According to the model, there is a 76.2% probability of a PSV win, a 14.2% chance of a draw, and a 9.5% likelihood of a Heerenveen victory. The model also indicates a strong potential for over 2.5 goals in the match at 78.3%. However, one caveat to consider is that if PSV's defence were to falter, Heerenveen could capitalize on any mistakes. For a detailed understanding of how these predictions were derived, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.2% probability.
PSV Eindhoven have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-1 PSV Eindhoven win as the most likely scoreline at 10.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. PSV Eindhoven are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.31 | 6.15 | 6.70 | 1.15 | 4.30 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.29 | 6.00 | 7.00 | 1.17 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 1.33 | 6.72 | 7.02 | 1.18 | 4.91 | — | — | |
| 1.34 | 5.80 | 6.09 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.33 | 5.80 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.35 | 3.00 | |
| 1.38 | 5.75 | 6.50 | 1.18 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.35 | 6.73 | 6.63 | 1.18 | 4.05 | 1.34 | 3.04 | |
Betano | 1.39 | 6.20 | 6.80 | 1.20 | 4.55 | 1.35 | 3.05 |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 6.00 | 7.50 | 1.17 | 4.60 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PSV Eindhoven leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen, PSV has won 8 times, Heerenveen has won once, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a strong dominance by PSV, with several heavy victories, including a notable 8-0 win. While Heerenveen managed a narrow 1-0 win in December 2024, this remains their only success in recent years. The matches tend to feature more goals for PSV, reflecting a pattern of one-sided contests, with Heerenveen last winning over 11 matches ago. Overall, the historical record shows a clear advantage for PSV Eindhoven.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 12 | WLWDL |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPSV Eindhoven have won 13 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat PSV Eindhoven 2-0 and beat PSV Eindhoven 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 5D 10L from the last 36 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heerenveen have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to PSV Eindhoven 2-0 and drew with Willem II 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 10L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPSV Eindhoven4-2-3-1Confirmed
Heerenveen4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersPSV Eindhoven8
Heerenveen1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Joey Kooij has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
PSV Eindhoven have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; Heerenveen 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.74 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PSV Eindhoven player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
