Puebla vs Monterrey Prediction, Tips & Odds
Puebla vs Monterrey
Match Preview
The model favours Puebla to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Puebla currently sits in 9th place in Liga MX with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, totaling 14 points from 10 matches. Their goal difference of -1 reflects a modest attack, scoring 11 goals while conceding 12. Despite a mixed recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches, they remain competitive in the league standings. On the other hand, Monterrey is positioned just below in 10th place with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, accumulating 13 points from 9 matches. They have a more potent attack, having scored 16 goals, but their defensive record of 14 goals conceded contributes to a goal difference of +2. Their recent form shows some inconsistency with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating they are capable but still searching for stability. The model suggests a win probability of around 55% for Puebla, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is Puebla's recent struggles, which could lead to a more challenging encounter than anticipated. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates the fixture through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Monterrey have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Monterrey are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Puebla vs Monterrey| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.75 | 3.54 | 1.86 | 1.78 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.05 | |
| 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 4.07 | 3.77 | 1.85 | 1.81 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 3.35 | 3.15 | 1.87 | 1.79 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 3.76 | 3.54 | 1.88 | 1.78 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.08 | |
Betano | 4.05 | 3.65 | 1.87 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Monterrey leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Puebla and Monterrey, Monterrey has won 6 times, Puebla has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Monterrey to secure narrow victories, with five of their six wins coming by a single goal. Puebla's sole victory was a 1-0 win, highlighting a pattern of closely contested matches. The last time Puebla triumphed over Monterrey was in February 2022, suggesting a significant challenge for them in this matchup. Overall, Monterrey has maintained a strong advantage in this head-to-head record.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 24 | WDWDL |
| 2 |  Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 21 | DLDLW |
| 3 |  Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 21 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 20 | DDLDW |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 | WDDLW |
| 6 |  Club Queretaro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 | LWWDW |
| 8 | Monterrey | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 17 | WDLWD |
| 12 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 11 | LLWDL |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 9 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 31 | -23 | 4 | LDLWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPuebla have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Puebla 1-1 and lost to Puebla 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 18L from the last 34 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Monterrey have won 3 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Club America 1-1 and lost to Atlante FC 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 15L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPuebla
No reported absences
Monterrey
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Puebla have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Monterrey 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monterrey have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monterrey player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
