Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Tips & Odds
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng
Match Preview
The model favours Qingdao Youth Island to win against Shandong Luneng, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Qingdao currently sits in fourth place in the league standings with 31 points from 21 matches, boasting a record of seven wins, ten draws, and four losses. Their goal difference of -3 indicates a slight struggle in defense, but their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses suggests they are competitive. On the other hand, Shandong Luneng is positioned seventh with 27 points from the same number of matches. They have recorded ten wins, three draws, and eight losses, which highlights their inconsistent season. Although they have scored 37 goals, their goal difference of +1 shows that they have also conceded a significant number. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates they are struggling to find stability. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for Qingdao Youth Island and a key market percentage of 60% for them to win. However, one caveat is that if Shandong Luneng's offense finds its rhythm, they could pose a significant threat. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Qingdao Youth Island have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Qingdao Youth Island are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.48 | 3.55 | 2.48 | 1.57 | 2.30 | 1.45 | 2.45 | |
| 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.59 | 1.57 | 2.14 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.55 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.57 | 3.62 | 2.68 | 1.67 | 2.26 | — | — | |
| 2.35 | 3.20 | 2.42 | 1.59 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.56 | 3.56 | 2.67 | 1.66 | 2.26 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.48 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.45 | 2.48 | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.47 | 3.50 | 2.57 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Superbet | 2.47 | 3.45 | 2.60 | 1.58 | 2.22 | 1.50 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 1.60 | 2.14 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Shandong Luneng leads 4-1)In the last seven matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Shandong Luneng, Shandong has won four times, Qingdao has won once, and there have been two draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Shandong to dominate, as they have secured three wins by margins of three goals or more, including a notable 5-1 victory. Qingdao's lone win came in a tight 1-0 match, while two encounters ended in draws, suggesting some competitive balance. However, Qingdao has not won against Shandong since September 2024, highlighting a challenging trend for them in this fixture.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQingdao Youth Island have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 and drew with Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 14D 8L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shandong Luneng have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shandong Luneng 2-0 and drew with Wuhan Three Towns 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedQingdao Youth Island4-2-3-1Confirmed
Shandong Luneng4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersQingdao Youth Island
No reported absences
Shandong Luneng
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Qingdao Youth Island have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Shandong Luneng 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Qingdao Youth Island have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Qingdao Youth Island player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
