Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, Beijing Guoan has shown a solid season performance with 29 points from 21 matches, boasting an impressive goal difference of +11. Their recent form has been particularly strong, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches, which includes three wins and two draws. This consistency is crucial as they aim to secure a higher position in the league standings. On the other hand, Shanghai Shenhua finds themselves in a precarious 13th position with 22 points. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, reflected in their recent form of two wins and three losses in their last five matches. While they have managed to score 38 goals this season, their defensive record is a concern, having conceded 34 goals and only achieving a goal difference of +4. This may hinder their ability to compete effectively against a more stable opponent like Beijing Guoan. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Beijing Guoan, with a projected score of 2-1. However, if Shanghai Shenhua can leverage their home advantage and improve their defensive organization, they could pose a significant threat. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions were formed, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis by The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.98 | 4.00 | 2.98 | 1.38 | 2.90 | 1.35 | 2.80 | |
| 2.01 | 3.85 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.95 | 4.10 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 2.07 | 4.11 | 3.20 | 1.40 | 2.99 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.44 | 2.65 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.05 | 4.10 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.07 | 3.97 | 3.20 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.35 | 2.94 | |
| 2.02 | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 2.95 | 1.33 | 2.95 | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.95 | 3.05 | 1.38 | 2.82 | 1.37 | 2.87 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan, both teams have won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a balanced rivalry, with several tightly contested games, as evidenced by the four draws and multiple matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Shenhua secured two wins by a margin of two goals, while Guoan's victories have generally been narrow. The last win for either side was in 2023, highlighting the competitive nature of these encounters. Overall, the head-to-head record reflects a closely matched history with no clear dominance.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 48 | WLDDD |
| 2 |  Yunnan Yukun | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 34 | WWLWD |
| 3 |  Shandong Luneng | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 33 | WWWLL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 | DDWWD |
| 5 | Beijing Guoan | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 32 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Dalian Zhixing | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 | LWDLW |
| 10 | Shanghai Shenhua | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 25 | WWLLL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 17 | LLWWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 15 | LDWWL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShanghai Shenhua have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Henan Jianye 4-1 and beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 11L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Beijing Guoan 2-4 and drew with Chengdu Better City 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 8L from the last 32 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Beijing Guoan 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.