QPR vs Swansea Prediction, Tips & Odds
QPR vs Swansea
Match Preview
The model favours Swansea to win this match against QPR, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Swansea currently sits at the top of the Championship table, showcasing a strong season with six wins from nine matches, accumulating 20 points. Their goal difference of +8 highlights their offensive prowess, having scored 15 goals while conceding only 7. Despite a recent draw, their form remains solid, with three wins in their last five outings. In contrast, QPR is in sixth place, with a record of three wins, five draws, and one loss, totaling 14 points. However, their recent form has been concerning, as they have failed to secure a victory in their last five matches, managing only four draws and one loss. This lack of wins could hinder their confidence and performance, especially against a team as formidable as Swansea. According to the model's output, Swansea has a higher win probability for this match, reflecting their superior standing and form. One potential caveat is that QPR's home advantage at Loftus Road could play a crucial role, as they will look to turn their fortunes around in front of their fans. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
QPR have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. QPR are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
QPR vs Swansea| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.34 | 2.90 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.80 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.48 | 3.35 | 2.88 | 1.98 | 1.86 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.04 | 2.66 | 1.92 | 1.90 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.34 | 3.34 | 2.91 | 1.90 | 1.84 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.35 | 2.95 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.86 | 1.81 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Swansea leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between QPR and Swansea, Swansea has a slight edge with 4 wins, compared to QPR's 3 victories and 3 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness and occasional lopsided results, with Swansea achieving a notable 3-0 win in one encounter. However, many matches have been closely contested, as evidenced by the presence of five matches that finished with a scoreline of 1-1 or 0-0. QPR's last win against Swansea was in April 2024, suggesting a challenge for them in recent fixtures.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 17 | LWDDD |
| 22 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQPR have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat QPR 4-1 and drew with QPR 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 12L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Swansea have won 8 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Millwall 0-1 and beat Lincoln 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 11L from the last 36 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersQPR
No reported absences
Swansea
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sam Allison has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Sam Allison to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
QPR have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Swansea 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
QPR have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. QPR player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
