San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Match Preview
The model favours San Jose Earthquakes to win against Los Angeles Galaxy, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. San Jose currently sits in second place in the standings, boasting an impressive record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from 15 matches. They have scored 34 goals while conceding only 15, resulting in a strong goal difference of +19. Despite a recent dip in form with only one win in their last five matches, their overall season performance indicates a team capable of bouncing back. On the other hand, Los Angeles Galaxy finds themselves in ninth place with a record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, accumulating 20 points from 15 matches. Their goal statistics show they have scored 22 goals but have also conceded 22, leading to a neutral goal difference. While they have shown some resilience in their last five matches with two wins, they remain inconsistent, which has hindered their chances of climbing the table. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for San Jose Earthquakes, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that their recent form could pose a risk if they fail to regain their earlier momentum. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.84 | 3.95 | 3.65 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 1.83 | 3.98 | 3.64 | 1.37 | 2.68 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 1.87 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.89 | 4.20 | 3.72 | 1.44 | 2.87 | — | — | |
| 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.37 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.83 | 3.95 | 3.80 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.41 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 1.90 | 4.05 | 3.60 | 1.45 | 2.85 | 1.42 | 2.72 |
Superbet | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.43 | 2.85 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Los Angeles Galaxy leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy, the Galaxy have won 7 times, while the Earthquakes have secured just 1 victory, with 2 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a tendency for close encounters, evidenced by several narrow margins, but the Galaxy's dominance is clear with multiple heavy wins, including a 3-0 and a 4-3 result. San Jose's last win against Los Angeles came in May 2025, highlighting their struggles in this matchup. Overall, the historical record reflects a significant advantage for Los Angeles.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 33 | DLWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 39 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 33 | WWWWL |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 33 | DLWLL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 29 | WDLWL |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 21 | DLLDW |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Union | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 14 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 10 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Club Tijuana 1-2 and lost to FC Dallas 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 3D 5L from the last 24 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Los Angeles Galaxy have won 4 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Seattle Sounders 0-2 and lost to Sporting Kansas City 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 10L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Jose Earthquakes4-2-3-1Confirmed
Los Angeles Galaxy4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersSan Jose Earthquakes6
Los Angeles Galaxy6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Armando Villarreal has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Armando Villarreal to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; Los Angeles Galaxy 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.97 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
