Santa Clara vs Benfica Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santa Clara vs Benfica
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win this match, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned second in the Primeira Liga, Benfica has had a strong season, accumulating 19 points from eight matches with six wins, one draw, and one loss. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 24 goals while conceding just 7, resulting in a goal difference of 17. This offensive capability, coupled with their solid defensive statistics, makes them a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Santa Clara sits in fourth place with 18 points, boasting an unbeaten record of five wins and three draws. Their defensive record is commendable, allowing only 4 goals throughout the season, giving them a goal difference of 8. However, they have scored fewer goals compared to Benfica, with just 12 in total. While Santa Clara's form has been impressive, their lack of recent strong opposition could be a factor when facing a side of Benfica's caliber. The model gives Benfica a 67.1% win probability, with a 20.8% chance of a draw and only a 12.1% chance for a Santa Clara victory. One caveat to consider is that if Santa Clara can maintain their defensive discipline and exploit any gaps in Benfica's backline, they could potentially cause an upset. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Benfica average 2.6 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.2% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 71% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 17.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santa Clara vs Benfica| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 9.00 | 4.60 | 1.34 | 1.82 | 1.92 | 2.14 | 1.62 | |
| 9.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| 8.38 | 4.91 | 1.36 | 1.83 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 7.24 | 4.20 | 1.31 | 1.81 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 8.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 9.00 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 9.75 | 4.99 | 1.37 | 1.89 | 1.99 | 2.14 | 1.63 | |
Betano | 9.00 | 4.60 | 1.38 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 2.10 | 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Benfica leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Santa Clara and Benfica, Benfica has won 9 times, with 1 draw and no victories for Santa Clara. The scorelines indicate a lopsided rivalry, with Benfica often securing heavy wins; they have won by three goals or more on four occasions. The lone draw occurred in 2025, highlighting Santa Clara's struggles against Benfica, who have been dominant throughout this period. Santa Clara has not won against Benfica in their last 10 encounters, reflecting a significant challenge for them in this matchup.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 17 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 17 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSanta Clara have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Santa Clara 4-0 and beat Santa Clara 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 10L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Benfica have won 11 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Benfica 1-4 and lost to FC Porto 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 27W 6D 5L from the last 38 games (71% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSanta Clara
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Claudio Pereira has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Claudio Pereira to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Santa Clara have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Benfica 6.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 1.90 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 71% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
