Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estoril vs Moreirense
Match Preview
The model favours Moreirense with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Estoril. Moreirense currently sits in 12th place in the Primeira Liga standings, having accumulated 8 points from their 8 matches. While their form has seen inconsistency, they have managed to secure two wins this season, which indicates a level of competitive capability. Notably, their goal difference of -7 suggests they have been more competitive in matches than Estoril, who are struggling at the bottom of the table. Estoril's season has been challenging, as they find themselves in 18th place with only 2 points from 8 matches. They have yet to secure a victory, with their last five matches yielding just one draw and four losses. Their goal-scoring woes are evident, having only found the net four times, which is the lowest in the league. This lack of offensive output, coupled with a goal difference of -8, highlights their struggles this season. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Moreirense, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a key caveat is Estoril's potential for improvement; they may find form against a Moreirense side that has also shown defensive vulnerabilities. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Estoril manage games at home, conceding just 1.52 goals per match. Moreirense score 1.00 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
Estoril have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estoril clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Estoril are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estoril vs Moreirense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.52 | 3.78 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.75 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.98 | 3.67 | 3.94 | 1.98 | 1.90 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.98 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Moreirense leads 5-2)In the last ten matches between Estoril and Moreirense, Moreirense has won 5 times, Estoril has won 2 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws, including three instances of 2-2 and one high-scoring 3-3. Moreirense's victories have often been narrow, with three wins by a single goal, while Estoril's two victories were also closely contested. The last time Estoril won was in May 2022, suggesting a recent struggle against Moreirense in their encounters.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WDLDW |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 | LDWLL |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstoril have won 4 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Estoril 1-2 and drew with Estoril 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 8D 16L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Moreirense have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Vitória SC 1-1 and lost to FC Porto 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 15L from the last 32 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstoril
No reported absences
Moreirense
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Estoril have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Moreirense 2.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estoril have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 23% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estoril player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
