Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction, Tips & Odds
Famalicao vs Alverca
Match Preview
The model favours Famalicao to secure a victory against Alverca, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Famalicao currently sits in 13th place in the Primeira Liga standings with 7 points from 7 matches, reflecting a season of mixed results with 1 win, 4 draws, and 2 losses. Their goal difference of +2 indicates a solid defensive showing, having conceded just 7 goals, which bodes well for their prospects in this match. Alverca, on the other hand, lies in 10th position with 8 points from the same number of games. They have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, leaving them with a negative goal difference of -2. Despite scoring 9 goals, their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed, as they have conceded 11 goals this season. This inconsistency could hinder their chances against a defensively sound Famalicao. According to the model's output, Famalicao has a win probability of around 45%, while Alverca's chances sit slightly lower at 30%. One area of concern for Famalicao is their recent form, where they have only managed one win in their last five matches. The full methodology behind this prediction, which relies on expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, courtesy of The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 53% of matches. Alverca average 1.1 goals per game.
Famalicao manage games at home, conceding just 0.85 goals per match. Alverca score 1.13 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Famalicao have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Famalicao clean sheets, in line with their 53% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Famalicao are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Famalicao vs Alverca| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.86 | 3.34 | 4.20 | 1.98 | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.96 | 3.30 | 4.51 | 2.08 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.06 | 3.53 | 2.03 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.94 | 3.48 | 4.38 | 2.06 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.55 | 4.75 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)The head-to-head record between Famalicao and Alverca stands at 1 win for Famalicao, 0 draws, and 1 win for Alverca. The scorelines from these matches indicate a competitive rivalry, with both teams securing narrow victories. Famalicao won 2-1 in their last encounter in the Taça de Portugal, while Alverca edged out a 1-0 win in their meeting in the Primeira Liga. This suggests that matches between these two sides tend to be closely contested, with neither team dominating the other in recent fixtures.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WDLDW |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | WWLDL |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | WDDDL |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFamalicao have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Famalicao 1-1 and drew with Famalicao 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 14D 7L from the last 34 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Alverca have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Nacional 1-3 and lost to Sporting CP 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 9D 11L from the last 31 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFamalicao
No reported absences
Alverca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Famalicao have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Alverca 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Famalicao have generated 1.29 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Famalicao player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
