Estrela vs Casa Pia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Estrela vs Casa Pia
Match Preview
The model favours Estrela to win against Casa Pia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Estrela currently sits in 9th place in the Primeira Liga standings after seven matches, having recorded two wins, four draws, and one loss. With a goal difference of zero, their scoring has been balanced, with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded. Their recent form shows a slight improvement, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating they are finding some consistency. In contrast, Casa Pia is struggling at the bottom of the table in 17th place, having played eight matches with only one win to their name. Their form has been concerning, managing just three goals while conceding 17, resulting in a goal difference of -14. This lack of offensive production coupled with defensive vulnerabilities has left them with just four points from eight matches. Their recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses highlights ongoing issues as they seek to climb out of the relegation zone. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for Estrela, with the projected scoreline of 2-0 reflecting their stronger overall performance this season. However, a potential caveat is that Estrela's tendency to draw matches could open the door for an upset if they fail to convert chances. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Estrela manage games at home, conceding just 1.61 goals per match. Casa Pia score 0.75 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Estrela have been the stronger side, winning 24% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Estrela clean sheets, in line with their 21% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Estrela are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Estrela vs Casa Pia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.82 | 3.48 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.90 | 3.62 | 4.38 | 2.03 | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.88 | 3.45 | 4.35 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Estrela leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Estrela and Casa Pia, Estrela has won 5 times, Casa Pia has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches featuring narrow margins; for instance, 5 of the matches were decided by a single goal. Estrela's largest victory was a 4-0 win, while Casa Pia's heaviest win was 3-0. The last time Casa Pia won was in April 2022, suggesting a slight edge for Estrela in recent encounters, yet the overall record remains closely contested.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WDLDW |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 9 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonEstrela have won 7 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Academico Viseu 0-2 and beat SC Braga 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 13D 12L from the last 33 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Casa Pia have won 3 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Estoril 1-2 and drew with Vitória SC 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 16L from the last 32 games (19% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersEstrela
No reported absences
Casa Pia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Estrela have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Casa Pia 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Estrela have generated 0.73 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 24% of them. They put 3.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Estrela player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
