Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win against Qingdao Jonoon, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shandong Luneng currently sits in 6th place in the league with 24 points from 20 matches, reflecting a competitive season despite a recent dip in form. Their goal difference stands at zero, with 36 goals scored and 36 conceded, indicating they have the attacking capability to secure wins but have struggled defensively at times. On the other hand, Qingdao Jonoon finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 16th place. With only 14 points from 20 matches, their season has been challenging, marked by a lack of consistency. They have managed just 6 wins and have conceded 38 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -8. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, including four losses. The model gives Shandong Luneng a strong win probability in this matchup, reflecting their higher league position and overall performance this season. However, their recent form, which shows just one win in the last five matches, raises some concerns. The full method of our predictions is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Shandong Luneng have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Shandong Luneng win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Shandong Luneng clean sheets, in line with their 12% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Shandong Luneng are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.34 | 4.90 | 7.10 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 1.34 | 5.30 | 6.90 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 1.38 | 5.72 | 6.79 | 1.37 | 3.16 | — | — | |
| 1.37 | 4.12 | 4.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.36 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.37 | 5.53 | 7.20 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 1.40 | 4.90 | 6.00 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.38 | 5.10 | 6.20 | 1.36 | 2.92 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 1.47 | 4.70 | 5.20 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.51 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Shandong Luneng leads 4-1)In the last eight matches between Shandong Luneng and Qingdao Jonoon, Shandong Luneng has won 4 times, there have been 3 draws, and Qingdao Jonoon has won once. The scorelines suggest a relatively competitive rivalry, with notable matches including a 4-1 victory for Qingdao Jonoon in 2026. However, Shandong Luneng has secured the majority of wins, often with narrow margins, as seen in several 1-1 draws and a couple of 1-0 victories. Qingdao Jonoon's last win dates back to 2026, indicating a recent struggle against Shandong Luneng.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShandong Luneng have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 3-1 and beat Shandong Luneng 4-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Qingdao Jonoon have won 2 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 and lost to Shanghai Shenhua 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 15L from the last 31 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShandong Luneng
No reported absences
Qingdao Jonoon
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shandong Luneng have averaged 3.2 corners per match at home; Qingdao Jonoon 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shandong Luneng have generated 2.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shandong Luneng player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
