Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun
Match Preview
The model favours Shandong Luneng to win with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 7th in the league, Shandong has accumulated 21 points from their 17 matches, with a record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference stands at +2, having scored 30 goals while conceding 28. Despite a mixed recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses, the team's overall attacking output suggests they are capable of finding the net frequently. On the other hand, Yunnan Yukun sits 4th in the standings with 24 points, having also played 17 matches. Their record shows 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a slightly better goal tally of 31 goals for and 29 against, resulting in a goal difference of +2. Yunnan's recent form includes two wins, two draws, and one loss, indicating they can be competitive but have struggled to maintain consistency throughout the season. The model gives Shandong Luneng a win probability of 58.3%, with a 21.1% chance of a draw and a 20.6% chance for Yunnan Yukun to win. There is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 70.0%, and both teams scoring at 66.3%. However, Shandong's recent inconsistency could pose a risk if they fail to capitalize on their home advantage. The full methodology for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
Shandong Luneng have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Shandong Luneng win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Shandong Luneng are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shandong Luneng vs Yunnan Yukun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.35 | 3.00 | 1.35 | 2.80 | |
| 1.68 | 4.25 | 4.05 | 1.31 | 2.92 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 1.70 | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.72 | 4.37 | 4.30 | 1.38 | 3.11 | — | — | |
| 1.74 | 3.74 | 3.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.80 | |
| 1.70 | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.73 | 4.37 | 4.16 | 1.34 | 3.47 | 1.37 | 2.86 | |
| 1.67 | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.32 | 3.00 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 1.73 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.80 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.15 | 3.85 | 1.35 | 2.92 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Superbet | 1.73 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 1.34 | 3.00 | 1.39 | 2.80 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Yunnan Yukun leads 2-0)In the last three matches between Shandong Luneng and Yunnan Yukun, Yunnan Yukun has won two, with one match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a notable advantage for Yunnan Yukun, highlighted by a dominant 4-0 victory and a close 3-2 win, while Shandong Luneng managed only a single draw with a 1-1 scoreline. This suggests that Yunnan Yukun has been more successful in recent encounters, and Shandong Luneng has not won against them in this sample, reflecting a challenging matchup for the latter.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShandong Luneng have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 4-3 and drew with Shandong Luneng 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 7L from the last 29 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Yunnan Yukun have won 5 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Shandong Luneng 4-3 and lost to Qingdao Jonoon 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 10L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShandong Luneng
No reported absences
Yunnan Yukun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shandong Luneng have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Yunnan Yukun 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shandong Luneng have generated 1.92 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shandong Luneng player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
