Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Shanghai Shenhua to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 9th place, Shenhua has shown solid form, winning three of their last five matches, which includes a recent victory streak. Their goal difference of +9 indicates a competent attack, having scored 36 goals while conceding 27. This balance suggests they are capable of outscoring opponents when in form. On the other side, Beijing Guoan is positioned 6th and has also been competitive, with four wins in their last five matches. Their season record shows a total of 29 goals scored and 23 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of +6. While they have been performing well, their inconsistency is evident, especially with their recent loss. This could impact their ability to maintain momentum against a resurgent Shenhua side. The model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 38% chance of winning, while Beijing Guoan has a 37.3% chance. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 67.6%, indicating a likely high-scoring match. However, a caveat for Shenhua is that they could struggle if their defense falters under pressure, particularly against Guoan's attacking threats. The full method of this analysis can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.74 | 1.38 | 2.90 | 1.30 | 2.95 | |
| 2.34 | 3.76 | 2.59 | 1.33 | 2.81 | 1.33 | 2.98 | |
| 2.30 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.10 | |
| 2.41 | 4.00 | 2.67 | 1.41 | 2.95 | — | — | |
| 2.13 | 3.37 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
| 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 2.45 | 3.81 | 2.66 | 1.37 | 3.28 | 1.33 | 3.04 | |
| 2.35 | 3.80 | 2.60 | 1.36 | 2.85 | 1.34 | 2.95 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.63 | 1.36 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.62 | 1.38 | 2.82 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Superbet | 2.42 | 3.70 | 2.52 | 1.37 | 2.85 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.60 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan stands at 3 wins for each team and 4 draws over their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side dominating the other. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and a few clear victories, with several matches ending in draws and only one match featuring a two-goal margin of victory. Notably, both teams have claimed recent wins against each other, highlighting the competitive nature of their encounters.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 43 | DDDWW |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 29 | DDLWL |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 28 | WWLLW |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 25 | DLWLD |
| 5 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 25 | DLWWD |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 24 | LWLWL |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 22 | DWWWL |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 19 | LWWDL |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 15 |  Tianjin Teda | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 11 | WLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShanghai Shenhua have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tianjin Teda 0-2 and beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 10L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 and beat Guangzhou E-Power 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 8L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Beijing Guoan 6.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 1.41 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
