Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln
Match Preview
The model favours Sheffield United to win against Lincoln with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 18th place, Sheffield United has had a mixed start to the season with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses from 8 matches, accumulating 9 points. Their goal difference stands at -2, having scored 9 goals and conceded 11. Despite struggling recently, their last win indicates potential for improvement. Lincoln, positioned 12th, has a slightly better record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, totaling 11 points. Their goal difference is -1, having scored 7 goals and conceded 8. While they have shown some resilience in their last five matches with 2 wins and a draw, their overall inconsistency could hinder their chances against a Sheffield side eager for three points. According to the model, Sheffield United has a 47.7% chance of winning, with a 26.9% probability of a draw and a 25.4% chance for Lincoln to come out on top. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 50%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 53.5%. One caveat for Sheffield United is their recent form, which has seen them struggle against various opponents. For a complete understanding of how these probabilities were calculated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Sheffield Utd manage games at home, conceding just 1.16 goals per match. Lincoln score 1.21 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Sheffield Utd have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sheffield Utd clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sheffield Utd are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.13 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.99 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.20 | 3.41 | 3.51 | 2.08 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.09 | 2.06 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.31 | 1.99 | 1.76 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Lincoln shows 0 wins for either side, with 1 draw. Both encounters have ended in stalemates, with the most recent match being a 0-0 draw in the League Cup and the earlier fixture also failing to produce a winner. This indicates a tightly contested rivalry where neither team has managed to find the back of the net against the other in their last two meetings. The lack of scoring suggests that matches between these two clubs have been defensively oriented and closely matched.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 |  Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 3 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 | WLWLL |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 | DLLLW |
| 22 |  Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSheffield Utd have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sheffield Utd 3-0 and lost to Sheffield Utd 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 12L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lincoln have won 9 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Lincoln 2-2 and lost to Sheffield Utd 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 10L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSheffield Utd4-2-2-2Confirmed
Lincoln3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersSheffield Utd3
Lincoln3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Josh Smith has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sheffield Utd have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Lincoln 2.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sheffield Utd have generated 1.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sheffield Utd player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
