ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Mirren vs Dundee
Match Preview
The model favours a ST Mirren win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 6th place, ST Mirren's season has been a mix of highs and lows, with three wins, one draw, and four losses from eight matches. While they have struggled defensively, conceding 14 goals and having a goal difference of -6, their ability to score eight goals indicates potential for offensive contributions. Dundee, positioned 4th in the league, has enjoyed a more stable season with four victories, one draw, and three losses. They have scored 11 goals and conceded only eight, resulting in a positive goal difference of 3. However, their recent form shows inconsistency, with only two wins in their last five matches, which may affect their confidence heading into this fixture. The model gives ST Mirren a win probability of 46.2%, while Dundee's chances sit at 27.9%. A key market to note is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals, sitting at 54.8%. One caveat to consider is ST Mirren's recent form, as they have only managed one win in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. The full methodology behind this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, reflecting our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
ST Mirren have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. ST Mirren are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Mirren vs Dundee| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.62 | 3.35 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.02 | 3.62 | 3.35 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Dundee leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between ST Mirren and Dundee, Dundee has won 5 times, ST Mirren has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories and a few heavier defeats. Notably, Dundee has recorded a significant 4-0 win in their most recent encounter, while ST Mirren's last win was a 3-1 victory in May 2024. The presence of two draws suggests that matches are often closely contested, but Dundee has had the upper hand overall in recent fixtures.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 16 | WDLWW |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 | WWLDL |
| 5 |  ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 | WDLWD |
| 6 |  Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 | WWDLW |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 | LLLLW |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | LDLLL |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | LDWDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 | LDWDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Mirren have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to ST Mirren 0-3 and lost to ST Mirren 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 16L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Dundee have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Dundee 1-2 and lost to Heart Of Midlothian 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 15L from the last 37 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Mirren
No reported absences
Dundee
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Mirren have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Dundee 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Mirren have generated 0.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Mirren player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
