Tammeka vs Nõmme United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tammeka vs Nõmme United
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka to win this match against Nõmme United, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tammeka currently sits in 5th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 44 points from 29 matches, with a record of 14 wins, 2 draws, and 13 losses. Their goal difference of -10 indicates some defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score a total of 37 goals this season, showcasing their ability to find the net. On the other hand, Nõmme United is positioned 9th in the league, struggling with 28 points from their 29 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 1 draw, and 19 losses is concerning, particularly with a goal difference of -21, which reflects significant defensive issues. The team has scored 47 goals but has conceded 68, indicating they are often involved in high-scoring matches, which could play to Tammeka's advantage. Overall, the model gives Tammeka a win probability of around 65%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that both teams have shown inconsistent form recently, with each winning only two of their last five matches. This unpredictability could lead to an upset. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, produced by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilises an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.3% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Tammeka win as the most likely scoreline at 11.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tammeka vs Nõmme United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.81 | 3.82 | 3.28 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.32 | 2.98 | |
| 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 3.20 | |
| 1.83 | 4.19 | 3.57 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 1.83 | 3.82 | 3.35 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.32 | 3.05 | |
Betano | 1.82 | 3.95 | 3.30 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 1.25 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Tammeka leads 4-1)In the last seven matches between Tammeka and Nõmme United, Tammeka has won four times, there has been one draw, and Nõmme United has won once. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable record for Tammeka, highlighted by a significant 6-0 victory in a friendly. The matches have tended to be competitive, with three encounters decided by a single goal and one match ending in a draw. Nõmme United's last win against Tammeka came in April 2024, suggesting a challenging recent history for them in this fixture.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 87 | 22 | 65 | 81 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 32 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 58 | WLLWW |
| 3 |  Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 57 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 51 | LDLWW |
| 5 | Tammeka | 32 | 15 | 2 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 47 | LLWLL |
| 6 |  Laagri | 32 | 14 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 35 | LWWDL |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 32 | 10 | 1 | 21 | 50 | 74 | -24 | 31 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 20 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTammeka have won 12 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 4-0 and beat Tammeka 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 3D 17L from the last 42 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nõmme United have won 9 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Laagri 2-0 and lost to Tammeka 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 2D 23L from the last 43 games (42% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTammeka
No reported absences
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tammeka average 1.9 goals per match at home; Nõmme United 2.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 52% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.