Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Prediction, Tips & Odds
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal
Match Preview
The model favours Toronto FC to win against CF Montreal, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Toronto currently sits in 12th place in the standings with a record of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 9 losses, accumulating 29 points. Despite a mixed form recently, their goal-scoring ability has been relatively strong, with 39 goals scored this season, indicating they can find the back of the net. On the other hand, CF Montreal is positioned 15th with just 5 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses, totaling 21 points. Their season has been challenging, reflected in their goal difference of -22 and a recent form of only one win in their last five matches. The team's struggles in both defence and attack have contributed to their low standing, making them vulnerable in this matchup. The model gives Toronto FC a 52.6% win probability, along with a 23.5% chance of a draw and a 23.9% chance for a CF Montreal victory. One key market insight indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 63.1%, suggesting an expectation of an open game. However, Toronto's inconsistency could pose a risk if they fail to convert their chances. The full method, which incorporates expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, prepared by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Toronto FC have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Toronto FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Toronto FC vs CF Montreal| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.89 | 3.74 | 3.58 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.45 | 2.51 | |
| 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.95 | 3.91 | 3.76 | 1.56 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.52 | 3.19 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.55 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (CF Montreal leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Toronto FC and CF Montreal, CF Montreal has won 5 times, Toronto FC has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines reveal a mix of outcomes, with some matches being quite high-scoring, such as Toronto's 6-1 victory and 5-1 win, while other encounters have been closely contested, including several matches decided by a single goal. The most recent draw was in August 2025, indicating a competitive rivalry. Overall, the head-to-head record shows a slight edge for CF Montreal, but Toronto FC has also had its share of significant victories.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 55 | WDDLD |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 23 | 41 | 67 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 55 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 15 | 51 | LDWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 52 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 | DWLWD |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 36 | WDWLL |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 31 | LLLDD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 | DLLWL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | -39 | 22 | LLDLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FC have won 9 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 3-3 and beat Toronto FC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 13L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
CF Montreal have won 5 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 15. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 2-1 and lost to Colorado Rapids 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 20L from the last 39 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedToronto FC4-3-3Confirmed
CF Montreal3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersToronto FC3
CF Montreal5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Allen Chapman has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Toronto FC have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; CF Montreal 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Toronto FC have generated 1.22 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Toronto FC player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
