TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Tips & Odds
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
Match Preview
The model favours TSV Hartberg to win against Austria Lustenau, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Hartberg currently sits in 6th place in the league and has shown a solid turnaround in form, going unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. Their goal-scoring has been moderately effective, netting 10 goals while conceding 13, indicating they have the potential to find the back of the net consistently. On the other hand, Austria Lustenau is positioned 8th and has struggled for consistency, recording two wins, two draws, and three losses. With 8 goals scored and 11 conceded, their goal difference mirrors that of Hartberg, but their recent form has been less encouraging, with only two wins in their last five outings and a tendency to concede goals late in matches. The model gives Hartberg a win probability of 40.4%, with a 27.2% chance of a draw and a 32.4% chance for Lustenau to take the three points. One caveat for Hartberg could be their defensive vulnerabilities, which might be exploited if Lustenau can find their stride in attack. The full methodology, which utilizes expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
TSV Hartberg have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. TSV Hartberg are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.42 | 2.85 | 1.82 | 1.92 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.88 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.34 | 3.42 | 2.86 | 1.82 | 1.92 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (TSV Hartberg leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau, TSV Hartberg has won 4 times, Austria Lustenau has 3 wins, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Hartberg achieving heavy victories, such as 4-0 and 3-0, while Lustenau's wins include a notable 5-1 triumph. The matches have shown a tendency for both sides to score, with several contests ending in draws, including a recent 2-2. Lustenau's last victory over Hartberg was in March 2023, indicating a competitive balance in their recent encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 17 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 16 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 5 |  Ried | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 | DDWWL |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | WLLDW |
| 10 |  Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | DWLLW |
| 11 |  Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 | LLLDL |
| 12 |  SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTSV Hartberg have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat SV Kapfenberg 5-0 and drew with Lask Linz 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 9L from the last 36 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Austria Lustenau have won 2 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Austria Vienna 2-1 and beat SV Lafnitz 2-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 7L from the last 21 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTSV Hartberg
No reported absences
Austria Lustenau
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
TSV Hartberg have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Austria Lustenau 7.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
TSV Hartberg have generated 0.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. TSV Hartberg player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
