Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts
Match Preview
The model favours JDFS Alberts to win against Tukums II, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. JDFS Alberts currently sits in 5th place in the league, having accumulated 23 points from 13 matches. Their season record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses reflects a solid performance, particularly highlighted by their goal difference of +7. They have scored 28 goals while conceding 21, indicating a more effective offensive and defensive balance compared to their opponents. In contrast, Tukums II is struggling at 10th place with only 11 points from 13 games. Their season has been marked by difficulties, as shown by their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, resulting in a goal difference of -13. They have conceded 31 goals, which is the highest in the league, while managing to score only 18. This indicates a significant challenge for them in both attacking and defending phases. The model output suggests JDFS Alberts has a strong win probability in this matchup. However, one caveat is that if Tukums II manages to find their scoring form or if JDFS Alberts struggles to convert chances, the outcome could be different. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
JDFS Alberts have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 JDFS Alberts win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. JDFS Alberts are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.40 | 5.25 | 1.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 6.80 | 5.25 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 3.14 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
| 7.50 | 5.50 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 6.37 | 5.16 | 1.28 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.80 | 4.84 | 1.25 | — | — | — | — | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.30 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 6.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 3.40 | — | — | |
| 7.06 | 5.25 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 3.14 | 1.55 | 2.24 | |
Betano | 6.00 | 5.10 | 1.34 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 6.10 | 5.20 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 3.25 | 1.49 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (JDFS Alberts leads 7-0)In the last nine matches between Tukums II and JDFS Alberts, JDFS Alberts has won seven times, with two matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a clear dominance by JDFS Alberts, as they have secured several heavy victories, including a 6-1 win and a 5-0 win. Tukums II has not managed to win any of these encounters, with their most competitive result being a 4-3 loss. The two draws suggest moments of competitiveness, but overall, the record reflects a significant advantage for JDFS Alberts, with Tukums II last achieving a positive result in 2023.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 69 | 14 | 55 | 41 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Leevon / PPK | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 36 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 35 | WWDLW |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 28 | WDDWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 23 | WLDLD |
| 11 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 12 | LDLWL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 5 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTukums II have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with JDFS Alberts 1-1 and beat Rīgas FS II 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 15L from the last 25 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JDFS Alberts have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Tukums II 1-1 and beat JFK Ventspils 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 7L from the last 28 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTukums II
No reported absences
JDFS Alberts
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tukums II average 1.4 goals per match at home; JDFS Alberts 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
JDFS Alberts have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 54% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. JDFS Alberts player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
