Utrecht vs Willem II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Utrecht vs Willem II
Match Preview
The model favours Utrecht to win this matchup against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 15th place, Utrecht has had a challenging start to the season with just one win from their first seven matches. However, their recent form shows some signs of improvement, having secured one victory and two draws in their last five outings. Key stats that stand out include their goals scored at 11, which, while not high, is better than Willem II's tally of six. On the other hand, Willem II finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 18th place, yet to secure a win this season. With a record of two draws and five losses, their struggles are evident in both their scoring and defensive stats, having conceded 20 goals. Their recent form reflects their difficulties, with no wins in their last five matches and only two draws to show for their efforts. According to the model's output, Utrecht has a win probability of 66.4%, with a projected score of 2-1. The model also indicates a 66.4% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. One potential caveat for Utrecht is their tendency to concede goals, as evidenced by their goal difference of -13. For a deeper understanding of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Utrecht have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Utrecht win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Utrecht clean sheets, in line with their 18% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Utrecht are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Utrecht vs Willem II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.48 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.53 | 4.65 | 5.83 | 1.48 | 2.74 | — | — | |
| 1.45 | 4.21 | 5.03 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.53 | 4.70 | 5.73 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 1.53 | 4.70 | 6.20 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Utrecht leads 7-2)In the last ten matches between Utrecht and Willem II, Utrecht has won 7 times, while Willem II has secured 2 victories, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided matchup, with Utrecht often dominating, as seen in their 6-0 and 5-1 wins. Willem II's two wins include a notable 3-0 result, but they have struggled to maintain consistency, with their last victory over Utrecht occurring in January 2019. This suggests Utrecht has established a strong upper hand in recent encounters.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 11 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUtrecht have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Utrecht 3-1 and drew with Utrecht 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 13L from the last 33 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Willem II have won 8 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Willem II 3-2 and lost to Utrecht 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 9L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedUtrecht4-3-3Confirmed
Willem II4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersUtrecht6
Willem II5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jannick van der Laan has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Jannick van der Laan to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Utrecht have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Willem II 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Utrecht have generated 1.77 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Utrecht player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
