Watford vs Burnley Prediction, Tips & Odds
Watford vs Burnley
Match Preview
The model favours Burnley to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Watford currently sits in 20th place in the Championship, having gathered just 8 points from their first 8 matches. Their form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five outings. Watford has struggled defensively, conceding 10 goals while scoring only 7, which highlights their challenges in both attacking and defending effectively this season. On the other hand, Burnley is at the bottom of the table in 24th place, with 4 points from 8 matches. They have yet to secure a victory, recording four draws and four losses. While their goals against column shows they have conceded 17 goals, their scoring record is slightly better with 9 goals. Burnley’s recent form, marked by three draws in their last five matches, indicates they have been competitive, even if they have not turned those performances into wins. According to the model, Burnley has a 39.4% chance of winning, while Watford has a 33.0% chance. The model also suggests a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 51.4% and both teams to score at 55.9%. One potential caveat for Burnley could be their inability to convert draws into wins, which could impact their confidence. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.6% probability.
Burnley have been the stronger side, winning 8% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Burnley are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Watford vs Burnley| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.93 | 3.45 | 2.25 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
| 3.05 | 3.64 | 2.33 | 1.78 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 2.85 | 3.28 | 2.20 | 1.74 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.06 | 3.57 | 2.30 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.24 | |
Betano | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.32 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Burnley leads 5-2)In the last ten matches between Watford and Burnley, Burnley has won 5 times, Watford has won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending closely, including four games decided by a single goal. However, Burnley has also recorded a heavy 3-0 victory in 2019, highlighting their capability to dominate at times. Watford's last win over Burnley was in August 2018, suggesting they have struggled in recent encounters. Overall, Burnley holds a stronger head-to-head record in this sample.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | WWDDW |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | DWWDD |
| 4 |  Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | WWLLD |
| 6 |  Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 | WLLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | LDWDL |
| 23 |  Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | LLDDL |
| 24 |  Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWatford have won 7 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Charlton 2-0 and lost to Burnley 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 10D 19L from the last 37 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Burnley have won 2 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Watford 0-4 and lost to Swansea 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 15D 20L from the last 38 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWatford4-2-3-1Confirmed
Burnley4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
19 playersWatford6
Burnley13
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Andrew Madley has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Andrew Madley to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Watford have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Burnley 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Burnley have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 8% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Burnley player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
