Aalesund vs Start Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aalesund vs Start
Match Preview
The model favours Aalesund to win against Start, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Aalesund currently sits in 15th place in the Eliteserien standings, having garnered 15 points from 17 matches with a record of 2 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses. Their goal difference of -14 reflects some defensive struggles, but their ability to score 27 goals suggests they can find the net against weaker opposition. On the other hand, Start is at the bottom of the table in 16th place, accumulating only 10 points from their 17 games, with 2 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses. With a goal difference of -22, they have conceded 38 goals while only managing to score 16. Their recent form, which shows just one win in their last five matches, further illustrates the challenges they are facing this season. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Aalesund, with 25% for a draw and 20% for a Start victory. One key market percentage to consider is Aalesund's likelihood of scoring two or more goals. However, Aalesund's inconsistent form, reflected in their last five matches, could pose a risk if they fail to convert their chances. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction methodology, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.4% probability.
Aalesund have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Aalesund are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aalesund vs Start| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.85 | 2.90 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.65 | |
| 2.09 | 3.80 | 3.02 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 2.10 | 3.90 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.15 | 3.99 | 3.15 | 1.52 | 2.61 | — | — | |
| 2.14 | 3.21 | 2.69 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.10 | 3.90 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.14 | 3.89 | 3.09 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
| 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.88 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.45 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.45 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.92 | 1.47 | 2.57 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.47 | 2.50 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aalesund leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Aalesund and Start, Aalesund has won 5 times, Start has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including three games ending 1-1. Aalesund has outperformed Start in recent encounters, securing victories with margins such as 3-1 and 3-2, but Start has also claimed notable wins, including a 3-1 result of their own. The most recent match ended in a draw, highlighting the ongoing balance in their head-to-head history.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 | Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 | Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAalesund have won 5 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Start 2-0 and drew with Valerenga 5-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 13L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Start have won 4 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Start 2-0 and beat Flekkefjord 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 16L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAalesund5-3-2Confirmed
Start5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersAalesund7
Start3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Haugen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Haugen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Aalesund have averaged 5.6 corners per match at home; Start 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aalesund have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aalesund player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
