Aalesund vs Tromso Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aalesund vs Tromso
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Aalesund. Tromso is currently at the top of the Eliteserien standings, having accumulated 31 points from 15 matches. Their season form has been impressive, with nine wins and only two losses, highlighting their strong attacking capabilities, as evidenced by their goal difference of +11. The team has also shown resilience, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws. In contrast, Aalesund finds itself in a challenging position, sitting 14th in the league with just 12 points from 13 games. Their recent form has been less than encouraging, with only one win in their last five matches, which includes three draws and one loss. Aalesund's defensive struggles are evident, as they have conceded 28 goals, resulting in a negative goal difference of -10. This lack of consistency and defensive solidity could be detrimental against a high-performing team like Tromso. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Tromso, reinforcing their status as favourites in this fixture. However, Aalesund could pose a threat if they manage to tighten their defence and capitalise on any potential mistakes from Tromso. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Tromso have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tromso are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aalesund vs Tromso| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 3.52 | 3.70 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 2.23 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.91 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.61 | 3.88 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.31 | — | — | |
| 3.41 | 3.55 | 1.95 | 1.59 | 2.36 | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.95 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.62 | 3.80 | 1.97 | 1.65 | 2.26 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 3.60 | 3.65 | 1.89 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
| 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.27 |
Superbet | 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.97 | 1.62 | 2.22 | 1.54 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Aalesund leads 5-2)In the last nine matches between Aalesund and Tromso, Aalesund has won 5 times, while Tromso has secured 2 victories, with 2 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, but Aalesund has had the upper hand, including a notable 6-0 victory in 2016. Several matches have been closely contested, as evidenced by the two 2-2 draws and a 3-2 win for Tromso. Tromso's last victory against Aalesund came in June 2023, suggesting a recent competitiveness, but overall, Aalesund's record highlights their stronger historical performance in this matchup.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAalesund have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tromso 2-6 and drew with Viking 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 12L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Tromso have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat CFR 1907 Cluj 0-5 and beat Aalesund 2-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 6D 7L from the last 32 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAalesund5-3-2Confirmed
Tromso5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersAalesund6
Tromso2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Grotta has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Grotta to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Aalesund have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Tromso 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tromso have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tromso player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
