Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
Match Preview
The model favours Sandefjord to win this matchup against Fredrikstad, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sandefjord currently sits one position above Fredrikstad in the standings, ranked 11th with 15 points from 13 matches. Their season has seen them achieve four wins, three draws, and six losses, with a goal difference of -4. Although their recent form has been struggling, they have shown slightly better resilience compared to Fredrikstad. Fredrikstad finds themselves in 12th place, just below Sandefjord, with 14 points from the same number of games. Their record includes four wins, two draws, and seven losses, which has contributed to a goal difference of -8. Recent performance has been troubling, with three consecutive losses followed by two draws, indicating a lack of form that could impact their confidence heading into this crucial fixture. The model assigns Sandefjord a win probability of approximately 55%, reflecting their marginally better position in the standings and overall form. However, a key caveat is that both teams are struggling, and a lack of goals could lead to an unexpected outcome. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Fredrikstad have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Fredrikstad are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.28 | 3.28 | 3.04 | 1.75 | 2.04 | 1.57 | 2.22 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.36 | 3.39 | 3.17 | 1.78 | 2.10 | — | — | |
| 2.31 | 3.28 | 2.84 | 1.74 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.35 | 3.32 | 3.12 | 1.77 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.26 | |
| 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.75 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.27 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 2.27 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.59 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Sandefjord shows Fredrikstad winning 4 matches, drawing 3, and Sandefjord winning 2. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry with Fredrikstad having a slight edge. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and a few decisive victories, with four of the last nine matches ending in draws and several low-scoring games, particularly in their recent encounters. Sandefjord's last victory dates back to 2016, suggesting a trend of Fredrikstad's dominance in this matchup over the last few years.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 15 | LLLDL |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFredrikstad have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sandefjord 1-0 and lost to Lillestrom 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 12L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sandefjord have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sandefjord 1-0 and lost to Viking 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 9L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFredrikstad3-4-3Confirmed
Sandefjord4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersFredrikstad4
Sandefjord1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Kellerhals has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fredrikstad have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Sandefjord 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fredrikstad have generated 0.97 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fredrikstad player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
