Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
Match Preview
The model favours a narrow victory for Ham-Kam, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Valerenga. Currently sitting in sixth place, Ham-Kam has demonstrated solid form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins and three draws. This consistency has been key to their season, allowing them to accumulate 18 points from 11 games, with a positive goal difference of 1. Valerenga, on the other hand, finds themselves in eighth position with 17 points from 13 matches. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. Despite scoring 19 goals this season, their defensive record has been a concern, as they have conceded 22, leading to a negative goal difference of -3. This suggests that while they can score, they struggle to keep the opposition at bay. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Ham-Kam, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Valerenga can leverage their home advantage effectively, they may pose a greater challenge than anticipated. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Valerenga have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Valerenga win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Valerenga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valerenga vs Ham-Kam| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.10 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.58 | 4.25 | 4.90 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.63 | 4.42 | 5.11 | 1.46 | 2.79 | — | — | |
| 1.54 | 3.98 | 4.45 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.62 | 4.35 | 5.01 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
| 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.90 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.85 | 1.47 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 1.61 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 1.45 | 2.62 | 1.51 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.60 | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In the last eight encounters between Valerenga and Ham-Kam, both teams have secured two victories, with four matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate that the matches have been relatively competitive, with a mix of close contests and a few decisive wins, such as Valerenga's 3-0 and 2-0 triumphs. Notably, Ham-Kam's last win in this fixture dates back to March 2022, suggesting a recent struggle to secure victories against Valerenga. The frequency of draws, particularly in the last three league meetings, reflects a balanced rivalry that often results in tightly contested outcomes.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | 23 | 37 | WDWWL |
| 3 |  Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 34 | WWWDD |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 | LLWWL |
| 5 |  Molde | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 24 | DWLDW |
| 6 |  Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 22 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Ham-Kam | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 9 | Valerenga | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 20 | LWWLW |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 | LDLDD |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 16 |  Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValerenga have won 11 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 0-3 and beat Aalesund 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 10L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ham-Kam have won 3 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Ham-Kam 0-3 and lost to Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 12L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedValerenga4-4-2Confirmed
Ham-Kam5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersValerenga3
Ham-Kam1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Stofringshaug has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Valerenga have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Ham-Kam 3.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Valerenga have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Valerenga player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
