Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Tips & Odds

Valerenga vs Ham-Kam

EliteserienRegular Season - 16
Valerenga
#7 · Eliteserien
WLWLD
VS
Intility Arena, Oslo (18,000)
Ham-Kam
#9 · Eliteserien
LLLDW

Match Preview

The model favours a narrow victory for Ham-Kam, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Valerenga. Currently sitting in sixth place, Ham-Kam has demonstrated solid form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with two wins and three draws. This consistency has been key to their season, allowing them to accumulate 18 points from 11 games, with a positive goal difference of 1. Valerenga, on the other hand, finds themselves in eighth position with 17 points from 13 matches. Their recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. Despite scoring 19 goals this season, their defensive record has been a concern, as they have conceded 22, leading to a negative goal difference of -3. This suggests that while they can score, they struggle to keep the opposition at bay. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Ham-Kam, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Valerenga can leverage their home advantage effectively, they may pose a greater challenge than anticipated. For a detailed explanation of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 8 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)
2 Valerenga4 Draw2 Ham-Kam
Oct 25
Ham-Kam
2-1
Valerenga
Eliteserien
May 25
Valerenga
1-1
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
May 24
Valerenga
2-2
Ham-Kam
NM Cupen
Nov 23
Ham-Kam
0-2
Valerenga
Eliteserien
May 23
Valerenga
3-0
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
Aug 22
Ham-Kam
1-1
Valerenga
Eliteserien
May 22
Valerenga
1-1
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
Mar 22
Valerenga
1-3
Ham-Kam
Friendlies Clubs

Valerenga and Ham-Kam have been evenly matched in this fixture, with 2 wins each and 4 draws across the last 8 meetings. The record offers no clear edge to either side, and the scorelines have stayed mostly tight rather than one-sided.

Eliteserien Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Bodo/Glimt
15112237112635
WWWWD
2
Viking
14111234142034
DWWLW
3
Tromso
1594226151131
WWDDL
4
Lillestrom
148152214825
LWWLL
5
Molde
147252519623
WLDWL
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
146351516-121
WDWWW
7
Valerenga
146262224-220
WWLWL
9
Ham-Kam
145362026-618
LLLDD
14
KFUM Oslo
143381525-1012
LLLDW
15
Kristiansund BK
143381223-1112
LDLLL
16
Start
152491634-1810
WLLLW

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
ValerengaHome
4W1D2L
7 playedGF 15 · GA 91.86 pts/game
Ham-KamAway
0W3D4L
7 playedGF 7 · GA 150.43 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
ValerengaHam-Kam
1.85Goals p.g.1.56
1.59Goals conceded p.g.1.63
22%Clean sheets26%
48%Win rate37%
3.44Avg goals in match3.19
1.57xG per game1.23
-1.03xGA per game-0.80
53%Possession %47%
5.4Shots on target / game4.3
7.1Corners per game3.8
Valerenga
Recent Form

Valerenga have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aalesund 6-1 and beat Fredrikstad 3-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 10L from the last 27 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: ValerengaAll competitions
16 Jul
Valerenga
6-1
Aalesund
Eliteserien
11 Jul
Tromso
4-0
Valerenga
Eliteserien
04 Jul
Valerenga
3-1
Fredrikstad
Friendlies Clubs
27 Jun
Valerenga
1-2
Gais
Friendlies Clubs
18 Jun
IFK Goteborg
1-1
Valerenga
Friendlies Clubs
29 May
Valerenga
3-1
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien
13
Win
48%
4
Draw
15%
10
Lost
37%
Ham-Kam
Recent Form

Ham-Kam have won 2 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 1-0 and lost to Bodo/Glimt 3-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 12L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Ham-KamAll competitions
26 Jul
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1-0
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
22 Jul
Bodo/Glimt
3-0
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
18 Jul
Ham-Kam
1-4
Tromso
Eliteserien
12 Jul
Sandefjord
2-2
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
27 Jun
IFK Goteborg
1-2
Ham-Kam
Friendlies Clubs
20 Jun
Fredrikstad
1-1
Ham-Kam
Friendlies Clubs
10
Win
37%
5
Draw
19%
12
Lost
44%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Valerenga

No reported absences

Ham-Kam

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.