AEK Athens FC vs OFI Prediction, Tips & Odds
AEK Athens FC vs OFI
Match Preview
The model favours AEK Athens FC to secure a victory against OFI, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. AEK Athens currently sits in third place in the Super League 1 standings, having played five matches with an impressive record of three wins and two draws, accumulating 11 points. Their offensive capabilities are highlighted by scoring 13 goals while conceding only three, resulting in a strong goal difference of 10. This solid foundation is complemented by their recent form, where they have gone unbeaten in their last five matches. On the other hand, OFI is just behind AEK Athens in fourth place, also with 10 points from five matches, featuring three wins, one draw, and one loss. They have scored eight goals and conceded four, giving them a goal difference of four. OFI's recent form is also commendable, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, showcasing their ability to compete at a high level this season. According to the model, AEK Athens has a win probability of 77.9%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 15.1%, and OFI's chances of winning are at 7.0%. One key market to note is the expectation of over 2.5 goals at 60.9%. However, a potential caveat for AEK Athens could be complacency given their strong start to the season. The full methodology behind these predictions is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
AEK Athens FC have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 AEK Athens FC win as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AEK Athens FC clean sheets, in line with their 50% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. AEK Athens FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AEK Athens FC vs OFI| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.25 | 5.70 | 10.00 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.93 | 1.76 | |
| 1.22 | 5.50 | 10.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 1.26 | 6.21 | 10.51 | 1.54 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 1.27 | 5.03 | 7.34 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.27 | 5.25 | 10.00 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.26 | 5.70 | 9.85 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.93 | 1.78 | |
Betano | 1.31 | 6.20 | 8.00 | 1.55 | 2.52 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 10.50 | 1.51 | 2.33 | 1.91 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AEK Athens FC leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between AEK Athens FC and OFI, AEK Athens FC has won 7 times, OFI has 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw. This record indicates a strong advantage for AEK Athens FC, particularly highlighted by their ability to achieve several clean-sheet victories, including a 3-0 win most recently in March 2023. OFI's last win against AEK was a narrow 1-0 victory in January 2026, suggesting that they have struggled to maintain consistent form against this opponent. Overall, the fixtures tend to favor AEK Athens FC, with a mix of tight and more decisive scorelines.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 14 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 4 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LDWWL |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 6 |  Panetolikos | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | LLWWW |
| 12 |  Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 | LLDDL |
| 13 |  Levadiakos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 14 |  Volos NFC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | LLDDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAEK Athens FC have won 15 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat OFI 3-0 and beat Panserraikos 8-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 12D 4L from the last 40 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
OFI have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 and drew with PAOK 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 10L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAEK Athens FC4-4-2Confirmed
OFI3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAEK Athens FC
No reported absences
OFI
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Georgios Kokkinos has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Georgios Kokkinos to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AEK Athens FC have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; OFI 1.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AEK Athens FC have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 60% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AEK Athens FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
