Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Nassr to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Nassr currently sits in third place in the Pro League standings, having accumulated 16 points from seven matches. Their strong season form includes five wins, one draw, and just one loss, showcasing their offensive capabilities with 16 goals scored. Notably, they have also demonstrated solid defensive strength, conceding only seven goals, resulting in a positive goal difference of nine. In contrast, Al-Ahli Jeddah occupies sixth place, with 12 points from seven games. Their season has been more inconsistent, with four wins but three losses. Despite a relatively high goal tally of 16, their defensive record is less impressive, allowing ten goals, which reflects a goal difference of six. Both teams have similar recent form, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating a level of parity heading into this fixture. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Al-Nassr, with the potential for Al-Ahli Jeddah to contest the match closely. However, one caveat is that if Al-Ahli Jeddah can improve their defensive performance, they could pose a significant challenge. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Al-Nassr have been the stronger side, winning 74% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Al-Nassr are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.95 | 3.58 | 2.00 | 1.55 | 2.24 | 1.48 | 2.40 | |
| 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 3.22 | 3.76 | 2.04 | 1.57 | 2.34 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 3.08 | 3.74 | 2.09 | 1.58 | 2.29 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.07 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al-Nassr leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Nassr, Al-Nassr has won 6 times, Al-Ahli Jeddah has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive series, with several close matches; however, Al-Nassr's victories often feature narrow margins, such as 2-1 and 2-3, alongside a heavier win of 4-3. Al-Ahli Jeddah's only win came in a tight 3-2 match, suggesting they can compete but have struggled overall, with their last victory against Al-Nassr occurring over two years ago.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 17 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 | LLLDD |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 3 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Ahli Jeddah have won 14 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 and beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 9L from the last 36 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Nassr have won 12 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al Ain 4-0 and drew with Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 2D 7L from the last 34 games (74% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Ahli Jeddah
No reported absences
Al-Nassr
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Ahli Jeddah have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Al-Nassr 8.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Nassr have generated 1.58 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 74% of them. They put 6.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Nassr player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
