Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Hazm to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Al-Fateh. Currently sitting in 10th place in the Pro League, Al-Hazm has shown some resilience this season with two wins, two draws, and three losses from their seven matches. Key stats indicate they have scored seven goals while conceding nine, resulting in a goal difference of -2. Their recent form of one win, two draws, and two losses suggests they are capable of competing, especially against lower-ranked teams. On the other hand, Al-Fateh has struggled significantly this season, currently positioned 15th with no wins in their seven matches, recording three draws and four losses. Their goal tally is particularly concerning, having scored only four while conceding eleven, leading to a goal difference of -7. Their form has not improved, going winless in their last five matches, which includes three draws and two losses. The model outputs a win probability of 60% for Al-Hazm, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to note is that Al-Hazm is likely to be favoured in the betting markets. However, a potential caveat for Al-Hazm is their inconsistency, which could allow Al-Fateh to snatch a point if they manage to capitalize on any defensive errors. The full method of this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as it is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Al-Hazm have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Al-Hazm are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Hazm vs Al-Fateh| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.58 | 3.42 | 2.28 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.53 | 2.27 | |
| 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.70 | 3.66 | 2.37 | 1.67 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.70 | 3.58 | 2.38 | 1.67 | 2.12 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
Betano | 2.77 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.72 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al-Fateh leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Fateh, Al-Fateh has the edge with 5 wins compared to Al-Hazm's 3 victories and 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive encounters, with several matches decided by narrow margins, such as Al-Hazm's 2-0 win and Al-Fateh's 2-1 victories. There have been no heavy wins in this period, suggesting that both teams are often closely matched. Notably, Al-Hazm's last victory over Al-Fateh was in December 2023, indicating that Al-Fateh has been more successful in recent encounters.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 17 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 10 | Al-Hazm | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 | DLWDD |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 | LLLDD |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 3 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Hazm have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Al Taawon 1-0 and drew with Al Shabab 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 9L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Fateh have won 0 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Fateh 4-2 and drew with Al Taawon 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 10D 14L from the last 27 games (11% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Hazm
No reported absences
Al-Fateh
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Hazm have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Al-Fateh 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Hazm have generated 1.19 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Hazm player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
