Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
Match Preview
The model favours Aris Thessalonikis to win against Atromitos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 5th position, Aris has shown a mixed form with three wins, one draw, and two losses from their six matches this season. They have scored eight goals but conceded twelve, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Key to their performance has been their ability to secure points at home, which could play a significant role in this matchup. On the other hand, Atromitos finds itself struggling in 12th place, having yet to register a win this season. Their record of four losses and two draws has left them with only two points and a goal difference matching Aris at -4, having scored five goals and conceded nine. The lack of victories and a poor recent form of three consecutive losses are concerning signs as they head into this fixture. According to the model, Aris Thessalonikis has a 51.3% probability of winning, with a 27.2% chance of a draw and a 21.5% chance of an Atromitos victory. While the data leans toward Aris, the caveat is that their defensive vulnerabilities could allow Atromitos to capitalize if they manage to find their scoring touch. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions were derived, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of matches. Atromitos average 1.4 goals per game.
Aris Thessalonikis manage games at home, conceding just 1.34 goals per match. Atromitos score 1.44 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Aris Thessalonikis have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis win as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Aris Thessalonikis clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Aris Thessalonikis are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.79 | 3.52 | 4.30 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 1.97 | 1.73 | |
| 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.33 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.33 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.81 | 3.52 | 4.28 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 1.97 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.55 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aris Thessalonikis leads 5-1)Aris Thessalonikis hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 4 draws and 1 Atromitos win. The record points to a tie Aris Thessalonikis have controlled for years, though the draws show Atromitos have at times kept it tight.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 14 | WWDWD |
| 3 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | WWLDW |
| 4 |  PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 | WDLLW |
| 6 |  OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LDWWL |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 | LLDDL |
| 13 |  Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | LLLDD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAris Thessalonikis have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Volos NFC 3-2 and drew with Iraklis 1908 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 7L from the last 29 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atromitos have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atromitos 2-1 and drew with Iraklis 1908 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 11L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAris Thessalonikis
No reported absences
Atromitos
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aris Thessalonikis have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Atromitos 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aris Thessalonikis have generated 1.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aris Thessalonikis player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
