Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama
Match Preview
The model favours Fagiano Okayama to win this match against Avispa Fukuoka, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Fagiano Okayama currently sits in 9th place in the J1 League standings, having secured 13 points from 8 matches. Their season form shows a competitive edge, with four wins, one draw, and three losses. They have scored 11 goals while conceding 10, indicating a slight defensive vulnerability but an overall solid attacking presence. On the other hand, Avispa Fukuoka finds themselves at the bottom of the league table in 18th place, with just 4 points from 8 matches. Their season has been challenging, marked by only one win, one draw, and six losses. The team's goal difference of -3, with 9 goals scored and 12 conceded, highlights their struggles both in attack and defense. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five matches. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Fagiano Okayama, with a key market percentage suggesting a strong likelihood of this outcome. However, a potential caveat lies in Fagiano Okayama's recent inconsistency, as they have experienced two losses in their last five matches. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model's analysis based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Avispa Fukuoka manage games at home, conceding just 1.61 goals per match. Fagiano Okayama score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Fagiano Okayama have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Fagiano Okayama are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.98 | 2.96 | 2.49 | 2.29 | 1.58 | 1.92 | 1.77 | |
| 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.23 | 3.07 | 2.52 | 2.40 | 1.62 | — | — | |
| 2.81 | 3.04 | 2.47 | 2.38 | 1.58 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.06 | 3.04 | 2.56 | 2.34 | 1.61 | 1.92 | 1.79 | |
Betano | 2.95 | 3.05 | 2.47 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.13 | 2.45 | 2.23 | 1.56 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Avispa Fukuoka and Fagiano Okayama stands at 2 wins for Avispa Fukuoka, 2 wins for Fagiano Okayama, and 6 draws over the last 10 matches. This indicates a closely contested rivalry, with a significant number of matches ending in draws, reflecting a pattern of tight encounters. The scorelines suggest that while both teams have managed to secure narrow wins, there have been no heavy victories, further emphasizing the balanced nature of their meetings. The last win for either side was Fagiano Okayama's 2-0 victory in April 2026, highlighting the recent competitive balance.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 26 | WWWLD |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 23 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 22 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 6 |  Kashima | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 | DWWDL |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 16 | WLLLW |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 | LLWLL |
| 19 |  JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 | LDDLD |
| 20 |  Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 5 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonAvispa Fukuoka have won 5 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Gamba Osaka 1-2 and beat Fagiano Okayama 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 13D 18L from the last 41 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Fagiano Okayama have won 8 of their last 26 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Nagoya Grampus 3-3 and lost to Avispa Fukuoka 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 18L from the last 45 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAvispa Fukuoka3-4-2-1Confirmed
Fagiano Okayama3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAvispa Fukuoka
No reported absences
Fagiano Okayama
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Avispa Fukuoka have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Fagiano Okayama 6.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fagiano Okayama have generated 1.20 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fagiano Okayama player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
